[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 26, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar made little progress on Wednesday, despite the mixed US data and the relatively strong euro, which briefly hit a new high for the uptrend. The volatile goods orders report was strong, but new homes sales were not stellar, naturally. Following some residual consolidation, the dollar should attempt to recover.
Euro/dollar
The overbought euro/dollar briefly made a marginally new high for its uptrend but closed little changed. Following an early upmove up today, the pair should probe lower.
Above 1.3718, the pair has distant resistance is at 1.3805.
Immediate support is at 1.3605. However, only a break below 1.3540 would signal the end of the upmove. Good support follows at 1.3470. Distant support is at 1.3390.
Oscillators are edging up.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen continues to lack much direction as it’s trading around the same range for four days. Expect more consolidation today.
Strong support is still seen at 118.25 by a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Below 117.60, support is seen at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Initial resistance is pegged at 118.75. Above 119.00, strong resistance remains at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar encountered some mild weakness on Wednesday, as it probed again the sub-$2 area. The overbought pair should go down soon. If it declines, the slide could be aggressive.
Immediate support is at 1.9955. Below 1.9925, strong support follows at 1.9855.
Initial resistance is at 2.0060. The next level is 2.0100. Next cap is seen between 2.0140 and 2.0155. If this area breaks, the pound would likely take attack a Gann level at 2.0200.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc briefly dipped to a four-month low just below 1.2000 but that was it. It still looks heavy, but sell it only on a confirmation
Once again, it has immediate and very significant support at 1.1980 from a trendline rising since January 2005 and only an aggressive move beneath it would signal a sustained decline. There is a key level at 1.1945. Dollar/Swiss franc then has strong support at 1.1885.
Initial resistance is at 1.2060. A confirmation that the slide is over would come only from a break above the resistance at 1.2120. Further resistance comes at 1.2200. Distant resistance is at 1.2255.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish