[B]Forex Market Commentary for June 1, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar climbed up against the yen, slipped against the pound and the euro and treaded water versus the franc in a session dominated by cross trading. Expect more consolidation in Asia and early Europe and then intense activity following the release of the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Direction? Anyone’s guess.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar edged higher within an inside range but remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair should encounter sharp spikes both ways around the non-farm payrolls release.
It still has strong support at 1.3400. If this level gives way, then look for a test of the support at 1.3375. Below this Fibonacci retracement level there is support at 1.3275.
Immediate resistance is between 1.3520 and 1.3530. A close above 1.3545 would signal another attack on the upside to 1.3610, but this is unlikely.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen broke out of an inside range on its way to a 3 ½-month high. The medium-term outlook remains bullish.
Above 122.00 there still is resistance at 122.18. Next resistance comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot.
Below 121.50, key support level this week is at 121.05 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 120.55 and 121.55. Below 120.00, strong support comes at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar climbed up in an inside range on Thursday after falling to a one-week low on Wednesday. The pound should consolidate today.
Immediate resistance is at 1.9845. Strong resistance remains at 1.9900 from the top of its declining channel. If this level breaks, then look for a rebound to 1.9960. This is unlikely.
Initial support is now seen at 1.9740. Below 1.9715 there still is good support at 1.9655.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc again traded sideways in a very tight range on Thursday, as expected. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the short-term the pair should only consolidate.
Initial resistance is still seen at 1.2250. Above the resistance at 1.2332 there is good resistance at 1.2370. Next target is 1.2437. Distant resistance looms at 1.2554.
Immediate support remains at 1.2200. Below 1.2170, distant levels are 1.2095 and 1.2065.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish