[B]Forex Market Commentary for June 12, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied further on Monday against the New Zealand after the RBNZ unexpectedly intervened to weaken its red-hot currency and also against the franc. But it went sideways versus the other the European currencies and the yen, as traders were seeking new direction. They should seek more of that today.
Euro/dollar
One day after falling to a two-month low, euro/dollar marked time quietly in an inside range on Monday. Following a brief recovery it should resume its decline.
Immediate support is at 1.3322. Below this Fibonacci retracement level there is support at 1.3275.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.3505. Next level is 1.3450. Only a break above the important level at 1.3522 would signal a retest of the 1.3553 area. A more aggressive upmove would attack 1.3610, but this is unlikely. Distant resistance is at 1.3683.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen marked time on Monday, but the short-term outlook is still bullish. Key level remains at 121.05 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 120.55 and 121.55.
Above 122.18 the next resistance remains at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Initial support is 121.55. Key support level remains at 121.05 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 120.55 and 121.55.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
After sliding to a two-month low on Friday, sterling/dollar traded sideways in a tight range and within the previous boundaries, just like the euro/dollar. The medium term outlook is still slightly bearish, but only a close below 1.9650 would confirm this view. It cut losses late in the day and should continue its recovery first but then resume its decline.
If 1.9650 breaks on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9623. A close below this level would signal a further slide to 1.9545.
Immediate resistance is at 1.9734. If 1.9770 breaks, then look for a further rebound to 1.9870.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied further on Monday to a new near four-month high. The medium term outlook is slightly bullish.
Above the resistance at 1.2400 there is good resistance is at 1.2425. Distant resistance looms at 1.2570
Immediate support is at 1.2350. Below 12285, strong support follows at 1.2210. Further support looms at 1.2170.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish