[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 5, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar followed divergent paths on Friday, sinking against the yen, rallying versus the pound and treading water against the euro and the franc. All in all, it still high time for cross trading, as the pressure remains on the long carry trades. This pattern should persist today as well.
Euro/dollar headed lower on Friday as well but trimmed losses. Again, the pair must stop here if it has any chance to move higher.
Immediate support is at 1.3140. Next support looms at 1.3120. Below 1.3080, very strong support is seen at 1.3030.
Initial resistance is at 1.3240. Above Tuesday’s high of 1.3258, the pair has strong resistance from a pivotal top at 1.3296. Further resistance looms at 1.3325 and 1.3367.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with negative bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
Dollar/yen sank to a new three-month low and the weakness should persist overall amid long liquidation of sterling/yen.
Initial support is at 115.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 115.00 and 116.00. The next level is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 113.70 and 114.70. There is a pivotal low at 113.43. Distant support is pegged at 112.90.
Immediate resistance is at 116.00. Strong resistance is at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35
The pound fell sharply on Friday on long liquidation of sterling/yen and the selling pressure should continue. A close below 1.9378, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October to January leg of the uptrend will confirm a more sustained decline.
The pair would then shoot for the intermediate pivot low in the 1.9250 area. The next level of support lies at 1.9215 and close below this important level would likely trigger a slide to 1.9050, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend between October and January. Distant
Initial resistance is at 1.9380. Above 1.9510 the pair has strong resistance at 1.9590.
Oscillators are falling.
Dollar/Swiss franc traded on cue on Friday, as following a brief bounce it attempted another swing at the downside.
Initial support is at 1.2142. Below this very strong level, support is still seen at 1.2100. Strong support then follows at 1.2030. Distant support is at 1.1880.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2200. Above 1.2255, resistance remains at 1.2305. Next level is 1.2370.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias