Forex Market Commentary for February 18, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar was all over the place on Friday, declining versus the euro and the franc, gaining against the pound, and consolidating versus the yen. With both the US and Canadian markets closed, Monday should see only sideways trading.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied further on Friday, and finally exited from an inside range on a daily basis. The break above 1.4650 nullified the downside risk – for now. Sideways trading is likely today.
Initial resistance is at 1.4720. Above 1.4765, resistance comes at 1.4800 and 1.4835.
Immediate support is at 1.4645. Below 1.4615, there is further support at 1.4565.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen marked time and closed virtually unchanged. Only a break below 107.80 warrants more weakness today. The key level remains 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 107.45. Distant support looms at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Above 108.45, resistance remains at 108.70 and 109.15. The next level is 109.80.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied for five consecutive day, but then buckled on Friday and the pair got stuck in an inside range. It formed a short-term bearish reversal and Monday should be a down day.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9545. The next level follows at 1.9497. Below 1.9385 there is a pivotal low at 1.9338.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9675. A break above 1.9740 would signal a further rally to 1.9787. This is followed by 1.9960.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell further down early Friday but then regained most of its losses. A recovery is likely today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0965. Above 1.1000, resistance comes at 1.1105.
Immediate support is seen at 1.0886. The next level is 1.0805. Below 1.0770, support is pegged at 1.0729 from a pivot low.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish