Forex Market Commentary for February 25, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar took another hit on Friday, but the move decelerated. Late talk about a solution regarding one of the monolines may help the US currency today. But the medium term outlook is bearish for the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar climbed up to a three-week high on Friday. It’s been marching higher since February 8 and my model went long on February 14. But the pair is slightly overbought, so Monday should see some weakness.
Initial resistance is at 1.4875. Above it, resistance comes at 1.4966 from a pivot high.
Immediate support is at 1.4790. Below 1.4765, there is further support at 1.4715. The next level is 1.4640.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank on Friday to an 11-day low, as expected. Monday should be an up It’s probing the support of a rising trendline and only a close below it would warrant further weakness. Keep an eye on the 106.75 level.
Key support comes at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Immediate resistance is seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Friday as well. My model went long on Thursday and the recovery should continue in the medium term.
But Monday should be a down day.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9738. A break above this level would signal a further rally to 1.9787. This is followed by 1.9960.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9615. The next level follows at 1.9575.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for a three-week low on Friday. My model went short on Thursday and the medium-term trend remains bearish. But Monday should be an up day.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0880. The next level is 1.0945. Distant resistance comes at 1.1000.
Immediate support is seen at near by at 1.0828. Below 1.0770, support is pegged at 1.0729 from a pivot low.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish