Forex Market Commentary for February 29, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar sank further on Wednesday amid additional soft US data, and this weakness was in line with expectations. Even GBP/USD joined the race. Expect the dollar to consolidate with a bearish bias today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a fresh record high on Thursday. Again, this is good because my model remains long since February 14. The pair is slightly overbought, but sideways to higher trading is still favored.
Initial resistance now comes 1.5355. Above 1.5360, resistance is now seen at 1.5465.
Immediate support moved up further to 1.5160. Below 1.5095, there is further support at 1.5040. Distant support is at 1.4960.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen tumbled on Thursday to close at the lowest level since May 2005. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support comes at 104.98 from a pivot low. Further support is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance moved down to 105.08. The next level is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant resistance is at 106.71.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Wednesday to the highest level of the year, but then reversed gains. My model remains long since Thursday, but I like to get square here.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9765. Below 1.9720, the next level follows at 1.9765.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9870. Only a break above 1.9971 would signal a further rally to 2.0035. This is followed by 2.0100.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a record low on Wednesday, and my model remains short. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support comes at 1.0560. Below 1.0515, support is pegged at 1.0400.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0680. The next level is 1.0730. Distant resistance comes at 1.0850.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish