Forex Market Commentary for March 5, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ended little changed on Tuesday amid talk that Ambac is nearing a deal to raise capital. As it remains quite oversold, the dollar to consolidate on a bullish note. The medium-term outlook remains bearish. Keep an eye on the non-farm productivity, the non-manufacturing ISM, and the Beige book
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar closed flat on Tuesday as well. My model remains long since February 14, but with the pair being overbought, there is a risk of a decline. Reverse long positions only on a confirmed decline
Immediate support is still seen at 1.5160. The next level is 1.5105. Below 1.5040, there is further support at 1.4965.
Initial resistance is at 1.5272. Above this pivot high, resistance comes at 1.5355. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.5575.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen closed little changed on Tuesday after getting stuck in an inside range, but is near a three-year low. Mixed trading is likely today as well – and the short-term bias is up.
Immediate resistance is seen at 103.70. Strong resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Support is still seen at 103.05. Distant support is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar consolidated on Tuesday but remained in an inside range. I still like to remain square here.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9805. Below 1.9765, the next level follows at 1.9645.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9895. A break above the pivotal level at 1.9971 would signal another further rally above the 2 mark. This is followed by 2.0040.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is soft after getting stuck in an inside range on Tuesday. My model remains short. Mixed to higher trading is likely today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0455. The next level is 1.0500. Above 1.0610, resistance comes at 1.0725.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0335. Below 1.0290, support is now pegged at 1.0170.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish