Forex Market Commentary for March 14, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar encountered another bout of weakness on Thursday and between the recessionary retails sales and Carlyle bond funds’ woes, its weakness should persist. There is faint talk of intervention, but no central bank is breaking down the door to support the US currency. Watch the University of Michigan report for intraday direction, but some short term recovery is likely for the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar climbed to yet a new record high on Thursday. My model is long since February 14 and I can’t complain. The pair remains overbought, but only short-term weakness is possible.
Initial resistance is at 1.5660. Further resistance comes at 1.5760.
Immediate support is at 1.5570. The next level is at 1.5490. Below 1.5415, there is further support at 1.5350.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank to below 100 for the first time since October 1995, but my system is short again. It looks bearish, but I like only small short positions because an initial recovery is likely.
Initial support moved down to 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. There is a pivot low at 99.77. The next level is 99.30. Distant support is at 98.75.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 101.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75. Distant resistance is now seen at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a new three-month high on Thursday and this bodes well for my model’s long position since February 2. Following a brief pullback, the upmove should resume.
Initial resistance moved up to 2.0390. Distant resistance looms at 2.0465.
Immediate support is now seen at 2.0260. The next level is 2.0220. Further support is at 2.0140.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a new record low, and my model remains short. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, but a short term bounce is likely.
Immediate support now comes at 1.0082. There is a pivot low at 1.0046. Below .9990, support is seen at .9830.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0190. Above 1.0260, the next level is 1.0350.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish