Forex Market Commentary for March 20, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied sharply from overnight lows, so the odds that the dollar bottomed are even higher today, but a confirmation is still pending. Keep an eye on the leading indicators and the Philly Fed reports.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed overnight losses on Wednesday following an apparent bearish reversal signal. A peak is probably in place, but confirmation is needed.
Immediate support is still in place at 1.5530. A break below this would strengthen the case for a major decline. Below 1.5545, there is further support at 1.5285.
Initial resistance is at 1.5650. The next level is 1.5720. Above 1.5755, resistance now comes at 1.5830 and then at 1.5902.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen trimmed losses on Wednesday after a bullish reversal on Tuesday, but probably a significant bottom is in place. My system remains long and the upside is tempting, but more information is needed. Key support is 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75.
Initial support comes at 98.00. This is followed by 96.86. Distant support is at 95.75.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75. Above 100.45, the next levels are perched at 101.25 and 101.90. Distant resistance is seen at 103.60.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar collapsed to a two-week low and my model is short. Further pressure is likely today.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9803. This is followed by 1. 9765. Below 1.9690, the next level follows at 1. 9585.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9880. This is followed by 2.0005. A break above 2.0085 would signal another further rally to 2.0250.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss struggled on Wednesday and recouped overnight losses. My model is long and the upside is favored.
Initial resistance is now at 1.0065. This is followed by 1.0145. The next level is 1.0200.
Immediate support is seen at 0.9885. Below 0.9745, distant support is now pegged at 0.9642.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish