Forex Market Commentary for March 21, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied on Thursday and the decline in commodities hurt the AUD, NZD and CAD. Again, the odds that the dollar bottomed are good, but today should be quiet with Europe, Canada and (almost) us closed for Good Friday.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar sank further on Thursday and a peak is probably in place. More weakness will help.
Immediate support is now at 1.5400. Below 1.53, there is further support at 1.5285.
Initial resistance is at 1.5470. The next level is 1.5520. Above 1.5590, resistance now comes at 1.5665.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen struggled higher within an inside range. Choppy trading is likely today.
Initial support comes at 99.00. This is followed by 98.46. Distant support is at 95.75.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. Above 100.45, the next levels are seen at 101.25 and 101.90.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar recouped early losses to close mixed on Thursday. Sideways trading should dominate today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9910. This is followed by 2.0005. A break above 2.0085 would signal another further rally to 2.0250.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9835. This is followed by 1. 9765. Below 1.9690, the next level follows at 1. 9585.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss marched higher on Thursday, as expected. My model is long and the upside is favored, but today should be quiet.
Initial resistance is now at 1.0165. This is followed by 1.0200. The next level is 1.0320.
Immediate support is seen at 1.0040. Below 0.9965, distant support is now pegged at 0.9870.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish