Forex Market Commentary for April 1, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied broadly on the last day of the first quarter and this turned my model long against all the majors. The downtrend for the dollar is still in place, but in the short run, the bias is bullish.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar failed to surpass its record high and reversed gains on Monday. This turned my model short. Expect a choppy decline.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.5745. Below 1.5655, there is distant support at 1.5480.
Initial resistance remains is at 1.5837. 1.5858 is followed by 1.5904 from a pivot high. The next level is 1.5970. Distant resistance now comes at 1.6160.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made a choppy upmove and this leaves my is long. I remain square here as choppy trading is likely today as well.
Immediate resistance remains at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 101.25. The next level is seen at 101.90.
Initial support is seen at 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75… Below 98.57, distant support is at 98.10.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell to a one-week low on Monday and my model remains short. I expect choppy trading as the pair is approaching the tip of a triangle.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9815. Below a pivot low at 1.9738, there is distant support at 1.9585.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9880. A break above 1.9965 would signal a further upmove to the peak at 2.0090.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss encountered very choppy trading but made little overall progress on Monday. The medium term outlook remains is bearish but I prefer to be square here.
Immediate support is still seen at 0.9872. This is followed by 0.9790. Below 0.9642, distant support is now pegged at 0.9500.
Initial resistance remains at 0.9985. The next level is 1.0115. Further resistance is at 1.0200.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish