Forex Market Commentary for April 3, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied further on Wednesday against the yen, but corrected lower versus the European currencies. The commodity currencies rallied against the US currency as well. The downtrend for the dollar remains in place, but Thursday should see choppy trading in preparation for the release of the non-farm payrolls a day later.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed early and some of Tuesday’s losses but my model remains short. Expect another attempt to push lower, but the downside remains limited.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5610. This is followed by 1.5565 and 1.5535. Below 1.5480, there is distant support is now seen at 1.5350.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.5700. Then, there is resistance at 1.5770. Distant resistance now comes at 1.5904 from a pivot high.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen surged further on Wednesday to reach a three-week high and this remains in line with my long model. Hold long positions carefully because the upside is seems to be in its final stages.
Immediate resistance remains at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. This is followed by 104.10.
Initial support is seen at 101.50. This is followed by 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. 101.25.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Wednesday to form a bullish reversal and my model remains barely short. I expect choppy trading with the upside questionable.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9990. Only a break above 1.9965 would signal a further upmove to the peak at 2.0090.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9805. The next level is 1.9730. Below 1.9690, there is distant support at 1.9585.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss made a weak decline from an over one-week high on Wednesday and my model remains long. The medium-term outlook remains bearish but I prefer to be square.
Initial resistance is still seen at 1.0155. The next level is 1.0200. Further resistance is at 1.0250. Distant resistance is at 1.0390
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0035. This is followed by 0.9950. Below 0.9880, distant support is now pegged at 0.9775.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish