GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for April 8, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar closed higher against the majors, but lower versus the high-yielding antipodean currencies. The dollar remains in a downtrend, but in the short term it may recover further. There is no US data due for release today, but the FOMC minutes are due.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar recovered most of its losses on Monday. My model remains short, and the pair, while overbought, may still climb higher.

Initial resistance is at 1.5800. The next levels are 1.5845 and 1.5894.
Immediate support remains at 1.5745. The next level is 1.5700. Below 1.5625, euro/dollar has support at 1.5540. This is followed by 1.5340.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied on Monday and my model remains long. The key level remains 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Immediate resistance is at 102.95. The next level is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Initial support is at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. This is followed by 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar closed down on Monday as well and this is in line with my short model. I expect choppy to lower trading today as well.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.9850. This is followed by 1.9800. Distant support is at 1.9740.

Initial resistance remains at 1.9940. There is a pivot high at 2.0046. This is followed by 2.0190.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied on Monday and this is in line with my long model.

Initial resistance comes at 1.0180. This is followed by 1.0251. The next level is 1.0375.

Immediate support remains at 1.0060. The next support is at 0.9990. This is followed by 0.9875.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish