Forex Market Commentary for April 15, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell pretty big against the euro and the pound, but closed flat versus the low yielding yen and franc. My model is getting chopped around in this market. More of the same today, as the dollar looks weak as a kitten.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged from a very weak opening to challenge its record highs. My model was forced to go long. I’d rather take profit on longs here, as it’s uncomfortably high.
Initial resistance is at 1.5885. The next level is 1.5914. Above it, resistance remains at 1.5985. Distant resistance is seen at 1.6040.
Immediate support is now at 1.5765. Below 1.5625, euro/dollar has distant support at 1.5540.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen encountered choppy trading on Monday and closed little changed. This weakness prompted my model to go short. Expect another range-bound day.
Good support is at 100.25 there is another 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75.
Immediate resistance remains at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot which targets 100.75 and 101.75. The next level is at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged on Monday, but failed to take out the declining trendline resistance and gave up about half of its gains. In early Asian trading the pound is getting sold off and the risk is now on the downside. My model is short again and the bias is downward.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9650. This is followed by 1.9610. Distant support is at 1.9504.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9760. There is a pivot high at 1.9842 and another one at 2.0046. This is followed by 2.0190.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss traded in choppy conditions and my model remains short. Choppy trading is favored today as well, I’m afraid.
Immediate support is still seen at 0.9965. This is followed by 0.9875. Support is then pegged at 0.9790.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0060. Above 1.0090 there is resistance at 1.0140 and 1.0190. This is followed by 1.0251.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish