Forex Market Commentary for April 24, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar has been traversing unusually murky waters in the past couple of days, as two trading days in the same direction have become a luxury. It’s basically trading in very fast and choppy conditions but remains within inside ranges. The oil remains in stratosphere, but gold is heading lower; EUR/USD and USD/JPY and USD/CHF are in short-term upmoves, while GBP/USD is consolidating. That’s sort of what I’ve been saying all along though. The dollar should consolidate today as well, and trade only if you got a strong feeling, can watch your position continuously and can trade very, very quickly. EUR/USD has downside risk due to an expected soft Ifo report.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell from above 1.6000 but remained in an inside range. My model went short in a timely manner and remains short. The uptrend remains in place for as long as 1.5793 holds, but choppy trading should prevail.
Initial support is seen at 1.5836. Below 1.5793, euro/dollar has support at 1.5760. Distant support is at 1.5670.
Above 1.5950, the next levels are 1.6018 and 1.6080. Distant resistance is still seen at 1.6185.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Wednesday to reverse Tuesday’s losses but remained comfortably within Friday’s range. My system is long. Today should see consolidation.
Immediate resistance is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. The next levels are at 104.50 and 105.20. Distant resistance is at 106.50.
Initial support is at 102.70. The next level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar keeps on alternating up and down days (in wide ranges), and on Wednesday it reversed its previous day’s gains. My model went short. The initial move should be down.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9745. This is followed by 1.9690 and 1.9595. Distant support looms at 1.9365.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9840. Above 1.9910 there is a pivot high at 2.0025. This is followed by 2.0085. Distant resistance is at 2.0260.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss held the trendline support and rallied to erase most of the losses encountered earlier in the week. My model remains long. Choppy trading with upside bias is expected today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0200. This is followed by 1.0283. The next level is 1.0390.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0100. This is followed by 1.0000 and .9875.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish