GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for April 30, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar rallied versus the European and the antipodean currencies on Tuesday, while closing flat against the yen. Obviously, the weak US data was ignored. All eyes are on statement from the Federal Reserve after cutting its rates by 25 bps at 14:15, so expect directionless trading until then.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar sank to its lowest level since April 3 and the selling pressure continues. My model is short, but this afternoon and Friday AM, there will be upside risk.

Initial support is at 1.5540. The next level is 1.5480. Distant support is 1.5355.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5600. A break above 1.5645 would signal a more aggressive recovery to 1.5690. Distant resistance is at 1.5790.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen recouped early losses to close basically flat on Tuesday. The pair remains in an uptrend, but the immediate outlook is mixed.

Immediate resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next levels remain at 105.20 and 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Initial support is at 103.85. Strong support follows at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Cable made an aggressive decline that erased the gains made the previous two days and took it to a near two-week low. My model went short, but the pair should bounce first before the next move lower.

Below the trendline at 1.5650, support comes at 1.5597. Distant support is at 1.5490.

Initial resistance is at 1.9760. Above 1.9820, strong resistance is perched at 1.9964.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss struggled higher on Tuesday but remained within recent ranges. Choppy trading is expected today as well, I’m afraid.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0400. The next level is 1.0440. This is followed by 1.0550. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0625.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0317. The next level is 1.0260. This is followed by 1.0185. Support is then pegged at 1.0135.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish