Forex Market Commentary for May 30, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar surged on Thursday despite a large drop in crude oil and gasoline supplies last week, as the Energy Department blamed the change ontemporary unloading delays on the Gulf Coast. Today should see consolidation, but the multitude of US data on month end may create temporary havoc. Be on the lookout for personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan survey.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar collaped to a near two-week low on Thursday and slightly pierced the support of the 60-day moving average at 1.5518. The downside looks limited here.
Immediate support looms at 1.5460. below 1.5415, distant support is seen at 1.5287 from a pivot low. It’s unlikley to dip that low.
The resistance at 1.5570 may hold on Friday. If it doesn’t, then look for a rally to 1.5650. Distant resistance is perched at 1.5817.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen surged to a three-month low on Thursday, but this upmove looks ready to peak.
Initial support is pegged at 105.18. Below 104.60 there is distant support at 103.60. Don’t expect to see it though.
Above 105.87, resistance is seen at 106.30. A further spike up to 106.85 is unlikley today.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar has been alternating up and down days for the past six days, so if this quasi-pattern continues, then Friday should be an up day. This actually makes sense, given the heavy retracement of the losses on Thursday.
Initial resistance is at 1.9820. Above 1.9850, there is further resistance at 1.9880, 1.9910 and 1.9935. Distant resistance follows at 2.0005.
Support is first seen at 1.9715. Below 1.9675, cable has support at 1.9615.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss soared for the third consecutive day on Thursday, but stopped just short of the 100-day moving average at 1.0533. Only a break above it would warrant further strength and Friday doesn’t seem the day to do it.
Immediate support is seen at 1.0460. Below 1.0375 there is support at 1.0310. Distant support follows at 1.0215.
Initial resistance is pegged at 1.0533. A break above it would signal a spike up to 1.0622, but this unlikely today.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish