Forex Market Commentary for June 12, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell on Wednesday on profit taking, but the decline was now aggressive enough to threaten a bearish reversal. The medium term outlook remains negative for the US currency, but consolidation is more likely. Keep an eye on the US retail sales report – it can create some ripples.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday, but failed to recover even a third of the losses made in the beginning of the week. Consolidation is likely and my model remains short.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5470. Below 1.5410, support comes at 1.5365. Distant support is at 1.5287.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5540. Above 1.5590, euro/dollar has strong resistance at 1.5645. Further resistance is then seen at 1.5842.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen slipped from a new 3 ½-month high on Wednesday, but the decline so far is too feeble to endanger the upmove. But I’m not sure how much room is left of the upside in the medium term.
Immediate resistance is at 107.40. Strong resistance follows at 107.95 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Distant resistance is then seen at 109.36.
Initial support is seen at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25 106.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses to close up on Wednesday. My model remains short, but barely. The short-term outlook is mixed to slightly bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.9545. The next level is 1.9545. Below 1.9493, distant support comes at 1.9365.
Above 1.9645, good resistance now comes at 1.9670. Above 1.9730, further resistance is perched at 1.9800.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell from a new high for the week and erased most of Tuesday’s gains. The short-term outlook is mixed, as the pair is stepping toward the tip of a triangle.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0360. This is followed by 1.0390 and 1.0448. Further resistance comes at 1.0520.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0270. Below it, there is support at 1.0150. Distant support remains at 1.0100.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish