GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for October 21, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

With the stocks up on Monday and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke endorsed an additional fiscal stimulus, the dollar climbed up on Monday. But volume remained lighter than usual. The dollar should attempt to pad its gains today, but the upside is limited.


The euro/dollar fell and closed at the lowest level of the downtrend on Monday. My model remains short as the pair is trying to break out of a triangle. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, but in the short term the downside should be within reach.

Immediate support comes from two pivot lows at 1.3289 and 1.3261. Below 1.3190, support remains at 1.3040.

Initial resistance moved down to 1.3390. This is followed by 1.3530 and 1.3615.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish


Dollar/yen struggled higher on Monday and my model remains long. Choppy trading will persists, and the initial bias is still up. The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Resistance remains at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. A pivot high lies at 103.06.

Immediate support comes at 101.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75. The next level is 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish


Sterling/dollar reversed early gains and my model remains short. The downside is favored only slightly, and the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.7105. The next level is 1.6965. Distant support is at 1.6790.

Initial resistance is at 1.7230. The next resistance follows at 1.7425. Above 1.7515, distant resistance remains at 1.7630.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss powered to a new high for the uptrend and my model went long early Monday. The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Initial resistance remains at 1.1540. The next levels are 1.1573, 1.1650 and 1.1755.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.1425. The next level is 1.1325. Below 1.1240, support remains at 1.1055.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish