Forex Market Commentary for September 14, 2007 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied versus all of the majors on Thursday, not an easy feat on a day when the SNB hiked rates. Yen crosses, including the carry trades, still look good. The US economic calendar is chuck full today, featuring the retail sales, the industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan reports.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell from a new all-time high of 1.3927 on Thursday, but the overbought pair didn’t form a clear bearish reversal. The downside is now favored.
Below 1.3840, euro/dollar now has support at 1.3790. This is followed by 1.3720 and 1.3635. Only a break below 1.3600 would signal the start of a downmove.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.3927. Next resistance is pegged at 1.3955. Above 1.4000 there is distant resistance at 1.4085.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday, but this upmove seems limited. Only a close above 115.80 signals further strength.
Above 115.50 resistance is seen at 115.80. Distant resistance is at 117.10.
Initial support is at 114.50. Strong support is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot that targets 113.70 and 114.70. Distant support follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot that targets 113.40 and 112.40.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell further on Thursday, as expected, and further weakness remains in store for the overbought pair.
Immediate and strong support is now seen at 2.0155. This is followed by 2.0100. A break below it would signal a further slide to 2.0000.
Initial resistance is at 2.0255. Above 2.0366, strong and distant resistance follows at 2.0400.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
The oversold dollar/Swiss made a weak recovery from a near 2 ½-year low on Thursday, despite the fact that the SNB hiked rates. Following a brief bounce the sell-off should continue.
Below 1.1803, support is seen at 1.1788 and ten at 1.1740 from a pivotal low. Distant support is at 1.1715
Initial resistance is at 1.1900. Above 1.1920, resistance is at 1.1970. Distant resistance comes at 1.2025.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish