Forex Market Commentary for October 5, 2007 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar gave back its gains from Wednesday versus the European currencies on profit ahead of the release of the non-farm data on Friday. Expect significant increase in volatility around this report. Given that the previous reading was extremely weak, an improvement is likely.
Euro/dollar
The euro reversed from its lowest level since September 25 to close higher on Thursday. The failure to break below 1.4065 put a further slide to 1.4000 on hold.
Immediate resistance looms at 1.4170. The next level is at 1.4235. Above the pivotal high at 1.4281 there is resistance at 1.4310 and at 1.4430.
Initial support is at 1.4065. This level is important and a break below would signal that the uptrend is in danger. Below 1.4000, distant support looms at 1.3925.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen did nothing on Thursday. It’s still testing significant resistance at 116.60 and its behavior at this level will provide short-term direction.
The immediate resistance level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot that target: 116.35 and 117.35.
Initial support is at 116.20. Strong support is at 115.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. Distant support is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot that targets 113.70 and 114.70.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar recovered aggressively from a four-day-low and this means the uptrend remains in place.
Initial resistance comes at 2.0445. Above the pivotal high of 2.0493 there is distant resistance in place at 2.0570.
Below 2.0325, support is at 2.0270. Next level comes at 2.0190. Distant support is at 2.0100.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell from the highest level since September 20. This means the medium-term downtrend remains in place, but the initial risk remains on the upside.
Initial support comes at 1.1690. This is followed by 1.1665. Below the pivotal low at 1.1619 there is a distant support level at 1.1570.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1818. Above 1.1845 there is resistance at 1.1890 and 1.1924. A break above these levels means the pair is no longer oversold. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.2040.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish