Forex Market Commentary for January 16, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ignored soft US economic data in Wednesday and mounted a powerful rally versus most of the majors and the commodity currencies. The exception was the pound, which consolidated in an inside range. The carry trades suffered a reprieve from risk adversity and their weakness will continue only if the US stock indices melt further. The dollar should attempt to further pad its gains.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar sank to a two-week low on Wednesday after forming a bearish reversal formation a day earlier. The downside remains favored.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.4640. 1.4580 and 1.4525 follows this. Distant support comes at 1.4440.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4705. The next level is 1.4770. Above 1.4870 there are pivotal highs at 1.49 90 and 1.4966.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed from a new 2 ½-year low on Wednesday and if it can extend this recovery the carry trades could benefit again. Mixed trading is favored.
Above 108.50, strong resistance comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Distant resistance follows at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Immediate support is at 106.75. Next support is seen at 106.20. The next level is 105.93. Below 105.50 there is distant support at 104.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Despite choppy trading, sterling/dollar did nothing, as expected, and got stuck in an inside range despite ongoing long liquidation in euro/sterling. Cable should consolidate further at the low levels.
Immediate support is 1.9565. This is followed by 1.9525. Below 1.9484, strong support now comes at 1.9430. This is followed by 1.9340.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9680. This is followed by 1.9720 and 1.9770.
Oscillators are sliding.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed aggressively on Wednesday from a new low for the downtrend. There is now upside risk, as the pair remains oversold.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.1025. This is followed by 1.1060. The next level is 1.1125. Strong resistance remains at 1.1190.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0930. Below the pivot low at 1.0840, a distant support is now pegged at 1.0760.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish