I have a couple portfolio models for trading US equities and Global markets, these are based on a Strong/Weak analysis rank order, This thread will serve as a place to document the results of trading these two portfolios, Trading rules will be added to this post at a later date
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Looking forward to this.
Restarting this thread after a long absence
Current Strong Weak Ranking
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It looks like FXCM has shutdown their user forum site, so I will be setting up shop here
The global monetary system has gone a long way during thousands of years of the human history, but it is surely experiencing the most exciting and earlier unthinkable changes. The economies too have seen some drastic changes and so is the growth rate for developing countries. Trust me some of the developing countries like India are becoming the fastest growing economies of the world which are still accountable and depended on the developed economies like US and China. Well 2016 looks unstable till now and Let’s hope future holds everything good.
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Here is my ranking of the 22 tradable ETF’s I follow, Stocks have been red hot these last two months and after a record January selloff we are nearing new all time highs in the Dow and S&P. May is a common month for market highs just before the “sell in may and go away” crowd takes control of the markets. We could be setting up just for that, so I will be looking for signs of market weakness and may take some off the table going into the summer months
Here is weekly chart of S&P, we still have a day to go but the current weekly candle is beginning to look bearish, if we have an up day tomorrow all is good, but another selloff like today and that green candle turns red would not be good. seeing how this reversal is happening at the swing high from last November is also bearish,
First spreadsheet is my strongest to weakest rankings of the 22 major ETF’s I follow, second list is same ETF’s in their YTD rankings. An EFT in the top 5 on both charts is in a pretty strong uptrend,
Two ETF’s went negative this past week, if that number increases that would be indication of a weakening market
April will be the 9th month in the last 11 that Apple stock has declined, simply there is no one left to buy their products or stock.
Watch for spikes in volume on down days, that will tell us the big boys are starting to unwind their positions.
A declining Apple will be bad for the Nasdaq , I would look for this index to under perform the S&P, it might make a good short and less risky than shorting Apple
Not helped by having 70% of their profits from one product, the iPhone, which is getting hammered by Samsung who have always had a technically better product and now supply this in a metal case like the iPhone
Apple got trashed today on their earnings report, this is taking down the Nasdaq 100 as it is over weighted in Apple, Apple could drop another 50% from here and take the Nasdaq with it. Then add markets have had a good two month run and with us nearing summer, a time that markets normally pull back, the Nasdaq could lead the other indexes lower. So how to play it, here I am looking at the QID which is a X3 ultra short Nasdaq 100 (or the QQQ’s ) , the chart shows a nice double bottom with support just a couple bucks away, I am thinking this could be a profitable place to park some money during a the summer months. If Apple can give us an oversold bounce that could make for a very attractive entry in QID
Best investing advise I have ever received came from this video( if only I had listen)
warning! lots of F bombs
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Month end numbers for the 22 ETF’s I follow, as you can see metals and mining is ripping it this year, energy is doing very well too.
the stuff at the bottom Technology, health care, small caps and financials are the areas you expect to lead in a strong market, which would lead me to the conclusion this is not a strong market
Note; going forward I will post this list at end of each month
As of week ending April 29th, In a week that saw most of the market down, areas that improved their rankings is something to be watching
ETF rankings for week ending May 6th
Second down week for S&P, RWR was the hot sector, XBI was weakest
Are you late to the party
We are in the 7th year of this uptrend and the S&P has tripled from it’s 2009 low. Price action has been choppy all last year and continues this year, that would suggest a top forming. And if we do head lower would the fed rush in with a new round of QE to keep this market moving higher. These are the things we must consider before putting new money to work in the market
taking a closer look at volume on the S&P. volume had been declining during the whole bull market, but now as price has been stuck in a range for over a year we see volume picking up. Is this a sign that there are a lot of people just now getting in to the market, or maybe it is retiring baby boomers cashing out. In either case I don’t like this pattern.
The big question is over the next 5 years is it more likely that stock prices rise another 30% or fall 30% , I am thinking the latter
Is this a Head and Shoulder top, it is starting to look like one with price pulling back to the neckline. 50 dma is also sitting at that neckline so if this breaks it could mean a couple ugly weeks for stock prices
S&P 500 has a similar looking pattern
Great my company just got listed in the S&P 500, farewell stock options it was nice knowing you.
Over half of my ETF’s are now trading below their 50 day moving average, many of broken key support areas. Monday could be an ugly day
