A lot of red today put it could had been much worse, stocks were down early then rallied all the way back in afternoon trading only to selloff again in last 30 min. With NFP this week I would not expect a whole lot to happen until Friday
With FOREX moving so slowly I am looking towards Silver, The metal was up 14.5 % in 2016 and is already above that in first quarter of 2017
looking at the chart below, you can see Silver has a lot more upside then downside from here, you cannot say that about most stock indexes
of the 22 sector ETF’s I follow, XOP ( Oil and Gas Exploration) has been the weakest, down 9% YTD, but we saw price reverse last Monday and has staged a strong rally over the last 7 trading days. what I want to see next is price to get back above it’s 50 dma, then I will be watching for a low volume pullback, that would be my place to buy, you could buy it here just know your risk is higher as we have no price action proof buyers will support current prices if we get a couple of down days.
What happen to my market, about 1pm DOW is up 200+ , I take a few hours away from my computer only to come back to a DOW down 40. I am reading this is all because of the Fed minutes being released, this is just wrong the Fed should have this much effect on the markets
From CNBC
Stocks erased earlier gains to close lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March meeting.*
The Dow dropped 41 points, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most losses. The 30-stock index had traded nearly 200 points higher earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gave up 0.31 percent, with financials lagging. The Nasdaq slipped 0.58 percent after hitting an all-time high earlier in the session.
For the Dow and the S&P 500, it was the biggest single-day reversal in 14 months.
The minutes showed Fed officials want to start unwinding the central bank’s massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year.
Unwinding the balance sheet is significant both because of its sheer size and the impact it could have on markets, as Fed members including Chair Janet Yellen have indicated that the move itself would amount to a rate hike.
So in short the $4.5 trillion the Fed created out of thin air to prop up the market under Obama, they now want to pull that money out of the market,
Below is the 1hour chart of S&P 500, you can see how the market reacted in last two hour of trading, this is troublesome. the next couple days will be important and we have NFP on Friday. 2 one hour candles does not make a trend, and this could be just an emotional reaction. But we do have a Market that has made a big gain over last 4 month and needs to pull back, that pullback could be painfull if you bought late into this rally
What happens when the US launches 59 Tomahawk missiles, just look at the chart below of Raytheon the maker of those missiles. Is there any wonder why there is such a push for war
Markets ended last week in Pullback mode, notice how the top 8 are all below their 10 dma, we could be seeing some rotation. It is normal for the beaten up stocks to get a bid when the top stocks look to expensive.
Check out my market review
ERX is an important one to watch as Energy stocks try to breakout of a 4 month correction, getting and staying above that 50 dma is what I want to see next
Two thirds of the market was up but the whole market sold off during the last hour of trading, that is not the sign of a market that wants to go higher
Gold is at new yearly highs, look for Silver and Gold miners to follow
With all that is going on in the world, buying Gold and Silver on any pull back is a wise investment move
Just under half the market was up today lead by Metals & Mining but unlike yesterday, today we were down early and rallied into the close, many sectors posting a pin bar reversal. Also notice that most of the up sectors are in the bottom half showing some rotation.
8 year look at the Consumer Staples sector, this chart concerns me, we are over due for a major market correction maybe even a bear market, can we trust XLP to be that safe harbor if the market turns south,
Market continues to weaken with both DOW and S&P closing below their 50 dma for first time since before the election, with 8 of 22 ETF’s now trading below their 50 dma, Next important support area will be the March 27th lows. Utilities and Consumer Staples seem to be a safe haven in this current correction
I am watching this consolidation box in the S&P 500, Key support is at 2320, which is also where the first fib level is, if that breaks then everything is on the table including a full retrace of the Trump rally.
Only Biotech up today, markets continue to rollover here, at some point I would expect a oversold bounce, a clear reversal could have me buying, a weak bounce and I will be selling into the bounce
Gold and Silver still looks like a safe haven for this pullback
Updated Thursday chart, this is the closing numbers from Thursday, my earlier post was before market closed
Here is my weekly look at the markets, Yen strong, Stocks weak, oil rises, Gold breaks out, all this covered in my video
Oversold bounce or reversal , in any case all but one ETF was up today lead by Financials
Note; both DOW and S&P were up about 0.9% , year to date we have had only 2 days with Dow and S&P up or down over 1%, in 2016 by this date the DOW and S&P had 27 trading days of price moving more then 1%. We are in a period of very low volatility, this is also showing up in our currencies
