I have a few friends who you could label as truthers. They do know a lot about Geo -politics and the economy etc. I do research things myself so don’t take anything as gospel unless I’ve checked it out myself.
The underlying consensus from these people I talk to is that there will be a global collapse, starting with the EURO going belly up at some stage soon, and that this is just the start of a major recession and that we are not coming out of it for a long time, where the general public think we are coming out of the recession, these people say we are not.
If this does happen how will it effect the forex market, and will it still exist If the folk who say that everything is going to implode are right? I am quickly seeing it differently now, how important Forex is to the big players who are involved, and hedge funds etc, and that currency exchange is a big part of investors portfolios, and how central banks are involved and the like.
Now as I’ve recently got into Forex and got to know a few traders, I’ve started to see the financial world in a different way, and not seeing bankers/financial institutions as complete BA****DS who are out to screw over everybody and anybody. I see the skill involved now I have read a little on the subject. I really can’t see the sense in the gobalists/major players such as Goldman Sachs etc, wrecking the economy on purpose now with so much invested and the profits they are making in all the sectors of the markets.
My plan was to demo for a while, and If I was keeping my pretend balance up around the initial deposit after a period of time I would may be consider going live. My concern now "is it going to be worth all the time and effort learning to trade. I’m trying to soak up as much knowledge as possible, I am currently spending 10-12 hours a day practicing trading and reading up on the subject. My aim is to treat it as a business and approach it in that way (If the demoing goes ok of course) but am I wasting my time If everything is going to go ***s up with the economy in the near future.
If the EUROs days are numbered, will all the euro zone Countries go back to their native currencies? How will change the Forex market?, will it be good thing or bad.
ha ha, yeah .Good to know there will always be Forex market.
What would happen If the euro goes bust? The currency would cease to be, would they have to announce it officially and phase it out. I was reading on Marketwatch that large companies are not committing to big contracts in Euros with some Eurozone Countries. The oil companies are not exporting to Greece for example.
I haven’t the guts to go short in Euro long term, although a good idea!!
Though the Euro has got very bad impressions yet,but the recent optimism in the markets has removed some bearishness for the Euro.
Do not worry about the Forex Market,It’s always here till the world ends.
this is probably the worst time to become a full time trader for any number of reasons.
the markets have become dislocated.
back when trading made more sense, you had an equilibrium between buyers and sellers which created force on price which followed a certain logic. now you have CB intervention in a thin market so the “push” in either direction has no balance. real money is sidelined right now, it’s not engaged.
the regulations are changing rapidly.
protectionism is stacked against speculation so speculators are going to be squeezed out as countries try to prevent capital flight from their currencies. I wouldn’t be surprised if capital controls shut down forex to retail in a year or two. they are already discussing denying withdrawals from money market accounts in the US, have stopped short selling in a few markets, and are setting limits on international bank transfers. there is real fear out there, and fear creates constriction.
it’s a losing proposition for brokers.
with the capital requirements for open positions dodd frank is placing on brokers, they can no longer float cost. this is a game changer that is going to kick in end of year. leverage is the only reason most retail traders could enter this market with nominal accounts sizes, but leverage is what caused the financial crisis, so it’s the main target of reform. MF Global and PFG are the tip of the iceberg on what’s coming with broker melt downs.
If there’s no profit in creating an access point for small players in the market, then you are going to be shut out of the market, plain and simple.
add this on top of everything else you are facing going live as a trader personally, and make your decisions based on the real landscape in front of you.
everything is a bubble. by the time a fad hits the mall it’s finished. it was no different with the tech bubble or the real estate. getting into full time Forex now is like showing up for dinner 3 hours late and picking over the bones.
this doesn’t mean you can’t make money while the ride lasts, but you’re behind the curve.
This is why professional traders analyze market fundamentals… If you are basing your trading decisions off of fundamental factors then you are changing dynamically with the market… Versus the trader who entirely focused on technicals and is left holding a system he spent years developing that is no longer viable…
That being said… Retail forex trading is not going ANYWHERE. At worst, leverage may be reduced but it will still remain at a useable level… 10:1 is still plenty adequate and would barely cramp anyone’s style who has been using reasonable money management…
I have another opinion about that. They have been pushing and pushing to actually tax the forex players, including the retailers. I don’t think they want to squeeze them out, they just want us to take longer positions so that there is more stability.
But in Europe the spot currency market is specifically excluded from the Financial Transaction Tax. An experiment in Sweden showed that such a tax would not only squeeze out speculators, but it killed the market for the stocks it applied on. Apparently the speculators provided the liquidity in that market, making the stock tradable.
I think they understand better now that the speculators provide more liquidity, if they only wouldn’t trade short term (e.g. HFT).
But I had the same concerns as you. But if it was so obvious that that would be their goal, it would already have happened. They probably see it as a source of income, but it is too soon to put that tax on us.
did you read about that guy who got caught outsourcing his job to a guy in China for 1\10 of his salary? He was a programmer making $200k a year, and paid someone in China to code for him, while he just did whatever he wanted.
Anyways, to keep this post “on topic” to keep it from getting scrutinized…
Isn’t it bad that Corzine amd MFglobal took such an overleveraged position in Greek and Spanish bonds, which went way against him? It makes me think they have faith in the wrong thing, that they really believe socialism works.
Spainish bonds are selling like hot cakes again today…people buying these things are nuts, just nuts…it’s only going to get worse.
did you read about that guy who got caught outsourcing his job to a guy in China for 1\10 of his salary? He was a programmer making $200k a year, and paid someone in China to code for him, while he just did whatever he wanted.
Hmmm, I actually thought about doing something similar a couple of years ago. To hire someone in Asia to do some data-analysis for me as input for my reports.
It makes sense right, as long as you keep an eye on the quality of the work…
Thanks for all the replies, although the consensus is still mixed as to whether retail forex will continue. Suppose no point worrying as to what will happen. I didn’t know what Forex was until a few months ago. I wish I had someone tell me about it years ago. Late to the party again!!! Im learning and demoing and will see how it goes anyway
