Gold Elliott Wave View

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Gold Elliott Wave View: Ending Impulse

Short term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAUUSD) suggests that cycle from 4/10 low (1246.92) is unfolding as an impulse Elliott wave structure where Minutte wave ((i)) ended at 1257.2, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1250.8, Minute wave (iii) ended at 1279.75, Minute wave (iv) ended at 1271.69 and Minute wave (v) of (a) is in progress towards 1291.99 – 1296.84 area before cycle from 4/10 ends and the yellow metal see a correction in Minutte wave (b). We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear again once Minutte wave (b) is over in 3, 7, or 11 swings provided that pivot at 4/10 low (1246.92) remains intact.

Gold 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart 04/13/2017

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Gold rallied after Elliott Wave Flat Correction

Gold ( GC_F ) has been rallying since forming a low on 3/10 (1196). Rally from there is still incomplete and needs some more upside, so we were keep looking for buying any intraday dip in the yellow metal for continuation higher. Below is the Elliott wave 1 hour weekend updated chart from April 8, where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 1260.9 & Minute wave ((x)) pullback ended in 3 swings at 1239.4 area. Up from there Minutte wave (w) higher ended in 3 swings at 1270.6 area, below from there the metal was showing the flat correction in Minutte degree wave (x) from 4/07 peak for the correction of near term cycle from 3/31 low (1239.4). Which was expected to end the 5 waves from the peak in Sub Minutte wave c lower in between 50-764% Fibonacci retracement area ( 1254.43-1246.54) before the rally resume in the metal or for a 3 wave bounce at least to allow our member’s to create a risk free position.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 4.8.2017

The yellow metal found buyer’s as expected from the blue box area ( 1254.43-1246.54) after forming a low on 3/10 (1246.9). Metal has now broken above the previous wave (w) peak (1270.6) thus suggesting the next leg higher has started already. The rally from (1246.9) low could be unfolding as 5 waves impulsive waves in Minutte wave (a) higher, where it could have ended the Minutte wave (iv) at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1271.6) from which it managed to bounce higher to resume the move to the upside looking to reach the minimum target of Minutte wave (v) at the inverse 1.236 – 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Minutte wave (iv) that comes at 1281.6-1284.6 area. The next opportunity in the metal will comes after ending the 5 waves from 1246.6 low, then metal should see a 3 wave pullback in Minutte wave (b) to correct that cycle before doing another 5 waves higher in Minutte wave © of a Zigzag structure ( unless it turns out to be a flat correction from 4/07 peak and corrects 3/31 cycle).

Gold 1 Hour NY Updated Chart 4/12/2017

Note: we have adjusted the degree of labels on last 1 Hour Chart but that will not affect the view in the metal

[elliottwaveforecast]

Gold Elliott Wave View: Pullback starting

Short term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAUUSD) suggests that cycle from 4/10 low (1246.92) is unfolded as an impulse Elliott wave structure where Minutte wave ((i)) ended at 1257.2, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1250.8, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1279.75, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1271.69 and Minutte wave (v) of (a) could be done at yesterday’s peak 1288.42 in Minutte wave (b), although another push higher in Minutte wave (v) of (a) towards 0.618-0.764% fibonacci extension area of Minutte (i)+(iii) 1291.84-1296.48, can’t be ruled out yet before ending the 4/10 cycle. However while below the 1288.42 metal could have started the Minutte wave (b) pullback to correct the cycle from 4/10 lows. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear again in Minutte wave (b) in sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swings provided that pivot at 4/10 low (1246.92) remains intact.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 04/14/2017

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Gold Elliott Wave View: Pullback completed

Short term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAUUSD) suggests that cycle from 4/10 low (1246.92) is unfolded as an impulse Elliott wave structure where Minutte wave ((i)) ended at 1257.2, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1250.8, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1279.75, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1271.69 and Minutte wave (v) of (a) ended at yesterday’s peak 1295.6. Below from there metal has started the Minutte wave (b) pullback to correct 4/10 (1246.9) cycle and that could be done already in 3 swings at earlier low 1281, where Sub minutte wave a ended at 1285.6 and Sub minutte wave b ended at 1292.6. However metal needs to break 1295.6 peak first for final confirmation of next leg higher started, If it fails to rally from here then Double correction from the peak within the Minutte wave (b) pullback can’t be ruled out yet before the rally resume, where we would like to be buyer’s again. Now as far as trading above earlier low 1281 and more importantly as far as pivot from 4/10 low remains intact metal has scope to resume the upside. We don’t like selling the metal into the pullbacks & favors the upside in metal as far as pivot from 4/10 low remains intact.

[elliottwaveforecast]

Gold Elliott Wave View: pullback ending

Short term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAUUSD) suggests that cycle from 4/10 low (1246.92) is unfolded as an impulse Elliott wave structure where Minutte wave ((i)) ended at 1257.2, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1250.8, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1279.75, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1271.69 and Minutte wave (v) of (a) ended at 1295.6 peak. Below from there metal could have finished correcting the 4/10 cycle (1246) in Minutte wave (b) pullback as 11 swings Triple three structure within the blue box area at yesterday’s low 1278.68 & should be risk free already, while above from there and as far as pivot from 1246 low remains intact metal has scope to resume the rally in Minutte wave ©. However metal still needs to see a clear break of 1295.6 peak first for final confirmation for next leg higher, above from 1278.68 low Minutte wave (i) ended at 1292.12 peak and Minutte wave (ii) is remains in progress & expected to end above 1278.68 low for continuation higher. If it manages to break 1278.68 low from here then metal could see 1275.38-1271.33 area next as double correction before resuming higher again. We don’t like selling the metal and favors keep buying dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot from 4/10 low remains intact.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 04/19/2017

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Gold short term weakness likely

Gold to Silver Ratio Daily Elliott Wave Chart

Daily chart of Gold-to-Silver ratio above suggests that the ratio is correcting cycle from 2/29/2016 peak (83.68) before the decline resumes later, provided that pivot at 83.68 high stays intact. Short term, cycle from 7/4/2016 low (64.37) is showing a 5 swing incomplete sequence, favoring further upside in the short term. Expect the ratio to extend higher towards 76.55 – 78.68 area to end the rally from 7/4/2016 low, then it should at least pullback in 3 waves if not continue the next leg lower.

As the Ratio is inversely correlated with the underlying physical metals, this suggests that a higher ratio implies a lower XAUUSD and XAGUSD. Thus, we could expect short term weakness in both metals to persist until the Ratio reaches the target of 76.55 – 78.68, then when the Ratio turns lower, both metals can get support and start rallying also.

[Lavaboy202]

what tool do you use to see the predicted elliot wave patterns? would be super helpful to know! cheers!

[elliottwaveforecast]

We forecast the market using Elliott wave, market correlation, cycles, sequence of swings and use our own distribution & pivot system to guide us through the process.

[elliottwaveforecast]

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Near Turning

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Daily Chart

Gold-to-Silver ratio is correcting cycle from 2/29/2016 peak (83.68) in 7 swing. While the bounces fail below 83.68 high, the ratio should resume lower or at least pullback in 3 waves. Down from 2/29/2016 peak, Intermediate wave (W) ended at 64.38. Intermediate wave (X) is in progress to correct cycle from 2/29/2016 towards 76.58 – 78.7 area before the Ratio turns lower. Short term, while the Ratio stays above 72.46, it should continue higher towards the target above before 3 waves pullback at least.

With the Ratio hovering near the high end of the range, the next leg in the instrument is likely lower after the bounce ends. The Ratio is inversely correlated with the underlying physical metals. This means when the Ratio hits the target and turns lower, Gold and Silver should be supported. Thus, as the Ratio reaches the target of 76.55 – 78.68 and turns lower, both metals can start rallying also.

[elliottwaveforecast]

XAUAUD Mid-term Elliott Wave Analysis

Back in November 2016, we mentioned that Gold should find buyers in 1540 – 1487 area and bounce ideally to resume the rally for new highs or in 3 waves at least. 3 weeks later, XAUAUD reached the mentioned area, it then found a low at 1525 on 12/15/2016 and started rallying. Yellow metal has reached 61.8 Fibonacci retracement (1728) of the drop from June 2016 peak and longs from 1540 should be risk free already. Today, we will take a look at the price action from 12/15/2016 low and the current forecast.

XAUAUD Weekly Elliott Wave View

Bigger picture in Gold-AUD remains unchanged. It’s showing 5 swings up from 2008 low which means the sequence is incomplete and calls for extension higher towards 2220 – 2441 area. Pull back in wave “x” reached 50% of wave “w” and is proposed completed at 1525. As dips hold above this level, rally is expected to continue towards 2220 – 2241 area. If pivot at 1525 low gives up during the current pull back, wave “x” could turn into a double three correction towards 1417 area but it should still remain bullish against 1280.52 low. This alternate view is less likely and should only be considered if the pivot or the low at 1525 breaks.

XAUAUD Elliott Wave Diagonal in wave (A)

Yellow metal has ended the cycle from 12/15/2016 (1525) low at 1727.59. Move up from 1525 low could be viewed as an Elliott Wave Diagonal structure i.e wave (A). A pull back in wave (B) should unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings and hold above 1525 low for extension higher. 1626 – 1602 is 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement area of wave (A) and could complete all of wave (B) or ideally complete just wave W of (B) which would be followed by a bounce in wave X and another push lower to complete wave (B). GCC (Wisdom Tree Commodity Index Fund) Elliott wave structure and sequences supports the idea of a double three correction in wave (B). We don’t like selling the yellow metal and expect dips to remain supported in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 1525 low remains intact.

XAUAUD FLAT in wave (X)

If the cycle from 6/6/2017 (1727.59) extends then, we could consider cycle from 12/15/2016 low to be over at 4/18/2017 (1712.75) i.e. wave (W) followed by a FLAT in wave (X) which should still end between 1618 – 1568 area and then we can see the yellow metal resuming the rally or making a larger 3 waves bounce at least.

[elliottwaveforecast]

Gold Elliott Wave View: More Upside

Short term Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave view suggests that rally from 7/10 low is unfolding as a a double three Elliott wave structure. Up from 7/10 low (1204.69), Minor wave W ended at 1274.11 and pullback to 1251.27 ended Minor wave X. Wave Y is currently in progress as a zigzag Elliott wave structure where Minute wave ((a)) is expected to complete with one more leg higher and can reach as high as 1294.3 – 1304.6, then it should pullback in Minute wave ((b)) before the rally resumes, We don’t like selling Gold and expect buyers to appear again after Minute wave ((b)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing, provided pivot at 1251.27 low remains intact.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Gold Elliott Wave View: 5 Waves Up

Gold Short Term Elliott Wave suggests that the rally from 8/15 low is unfolding as a zigzag. The first leg Minor wave A is subdivided as an impulse. Minute wave ((i)) of A ended at 1300.83, Minute wave ((ii)) of A ended at 1274.45, Minute wave ((iii)) of A ended at 1326, and Minute wave ((iv)) of A ended at 1297.52. Minute wave ((v)) of A is currently in progress and also subdivided as an impulse.

Minutte wave (i) of ((v)) ended at 1323.63, Minutte wave (ii) of ((v)) ended at 1316.3, and Minutte wave (iii) of ((v)) ended at 1339.77. Gold is currently in Minutte wave (iv) of ((v)) pullback before another leg higher to complete Minor wave A. Afterwards, Gold should pullback in Minor wave B to correct cycle from 8/15 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling Gold and expect buyers to appear once wave B pullback is over in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 8/15 low (1267.21) stays intact.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Gold Soars Above $1300 as Concerns Mount

Gold has tested $1300 level 3 times since April and it finally broke above the level on Monday and rose to the highest level this year. The trigger of the break seems to be the North Korea firing a ballistic missile over Japan, which boosts the safe haven demand. The yellow metal then extended the rally to 11 month high after North Korea nuke test. Gold’s strength, however, can not be attributed to just one event, but rather over a series of concerns which start to build a wall of worry among investors.

A few weeks ago, White House chief economic adviser Gary Cohn came close to resigning after president Trump’s response of blaming “both sides” in the deadly violence at Charlottesville, Virginia. Mr. Cohn is the main architect of President Trump’s tax reform agenda, and thus when news of his possible departure started to circulate around Aug 17, markets were spooked. Then there are also concerns of government shutdown if the debt ceiling is not raised. If this happens, it will trigger technical default on U.S debt.

Apart from the argument of safe haven demand, Gold for some people is considered as the best form of sound money. Unlike fiat money which can be printed ex nihilo, Gold has limited quantities. It has survived thousands of years as a form of money, longer than any other alternative forms of payment. The chart below compares Gold’s role as store value vs the fiat:

The chart above shows that while equity markets are hitting all-time highs in USD term, it peaked against Gold in 2000 and remain 70% below the peak.

We believe Gold’s dual role as sound money and safe haven demand will become more prominent in the next coming months as the massive Quantitative Easing experiment by central banks around the world start to reveal the true costs. This month, we shall also see the market reaction to the U.S. Fed’s plans to normalize their balance sheet and taper bonds reinvestment. On paper, this is the same as money tightening and thus could have the opposite effect of money printing.

Gold Daily Elliottwave Sequence Chart

The Daily Chart of Gold shows the sequence from 12.15.2016 is bullish and favors more upside towards 1376.8 – 1417.6. When Gold reaches this area, it will also break above 7.6.2016 peak at 1375.15 which opens another larger bullish sequence from 12.3.2015 low. Thus, we don’t like selling Gold in any pullback and prefer to buy dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

[m.k.a]

thanks for longer term analysis

[Lavaboy202]

How can I learn more about elliott wave patterns? I’d like to enhance my ability to trade based of that.

[elliottwaveforecast]

You can start by learning the basics of EW in our website as we have a free page & free ebook to start with it.

[elliottwaveforecast]

Gold Elliott wave view: Double three

Short term Gold Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally from 10/06 low (1260.52) to 10/16 peak (1306.35) ended intermediate wave (X) then the decline from there is unfolding as a a double three Elliott wave structure. As the structure of the 10/16 peak looks to be overlapping, hence suggesting its corrective structure, either W, X, Y or W, X, Y, Z.

The first leg lower ended in Minute wave ((w)) at 1276.34 & bounce to 1291.17 ended Minute wave ((x)). Minute wave ((y)) currently in progress as double three structures. Where Minutte wave (w) ended at 1272.43 low and Minutte wave (x) bounce at 1283.54 as a flat. Near term, as far as bounces fails below 1291.17 peak metal has scope to extend 1 more push lower towards 1261.19-1254.42 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area from 10/16 peak. Afterwards it should end the cycle from 10/16 peak and should do a 3 wave bounce minimum. We don’t like buying the metal and as far as bounces fails below the 1291.17 peak and more importantly the pivot from 10/16 peak stays intact metal is expected to trade lower.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Favored Higher Against 1306.96

Gold Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that Intermediate wave (X) ended with the decline to 1306.96. Up from there, the yellow metal is rallying in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 1337, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1317.27, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1357.12, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1348.30, and Minutte wave (v) ended at 1361.72.

The 5 waves rally from 1306.96 to 1361.72 ended a higher degree Minute wave ((a)) of a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Minute wave ((b)) is currently in progress to correct cycle from 2/8 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing. The next extreme area in 7 swing comes at 1330.07 – 1334.15 where Minute wave ((b)) can end. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 2/8 low (1306.96) stays intact, expect Gold to extend higher. We don’t like selling Gold and expect buyers to appear at 1330.07 – 1334.15 area for a 3 waves bounce at least.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Ending Correction

Gold Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline to 1306.96 ended Intermediate wave (X). The rally from there is unfolding in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Minutte wave (i) ended at 1337, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1317.27, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1357.12, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1348.30, and Minutte wave (v) ended at 1361.72.

The 5 waves rally also ended a higher degree Minute wave ((a)) of a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Minute wave ((b)) pullback is currently in progress to correct cycle from 2/8 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Minute wave ((b)) has reached 1323.39 – 1334.07 area where it could end. As far as pivot at 2/8 low (1306.96) stays intact, expect Gold to extend higher. We don’t like selling the yellow metal and expect buyers to appear at 1330.07 – 1334.15 area for a 3 waves bounce at least.

If pivot at 2/8 low (1306.96) fails, then Gold is doing a double correction in Intermediate wave (X). In this case, the yellow metal then can extend lower to 1289.48 – 1303.34 area where wave (X) can end and the rally resumes.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold Can do a Double Correction

Gold Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the yellow metal is still correcting cycle from 12.13.2017 low ($1236.30) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1.25.2018 high ($1366.06), the decline is unfolding as a double three where Minor wave W ended at $1306.96 and Minor wave X bounce ended at $1361.81.

Minor wave Y is in progress and the subdivision is also unfolding as a double there where Minute wave ((w)) ended at $1324.75 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at $1336.21. Near term, while bounces stay below $1336.21, but more importantly below $1361.81, the yellow metal has scope to extend lower towards $1288.27 – $1302.28 to end Minor wave Y. Afterwards, expect Gold to resume the rally higher or at least bounce in larger 3 waves to correct cycle from 1.25.2018 high. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback

For this view to be gain more validity, Gold needs to break below Minor wave W at $1306.96. Until then, there is no guarantee Gold will extend lower and the right side remains higher as the yellow metal still has 5 swing bullish sequence from 12.15.2016 low. We do not like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear at $1228.27 – $1302.28 (if reached) for a 3 waves bounce at least.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart