XAU/USD has been in a recovery mode since April 6th, when it hit support at 1915. That said, the metal met strong resistance at 1968 yesterday, a barrier marked by the peak of March 24th. Although the metal has been mainly oscillating between those two barriers since March 15th, the overall picture still points to a medium-term uptrend, as marked by the upside support line drawn from the low of August 9th. Thus, we see decent chances for the recent recovery to continue above 1968.
A clear break above that hurdle could encourage the bulls to climb all the way towards the all-time high of 2075, hit on August 6th, 2020, and almost touched on March 8th, this year. If they manage to overcome it this time around, we could see them testing the psychological figure of 2100, the break of which could allow extensions towards 2150.
Shifting attention to our daily oscillators, we see that the RSI rebounded from near 50, while the MACD, already slightly above zero, has bottomed and just poked its nose above its trigger line. Both indicators suggest that the yellow metal has started gaining upside speed again, which supports the notion for further advances in the short run.
On the downside, we would like to see a clear dip below 1820, the low of February 11th, before we start examining a bearish reversal. This could confirm the break below the upside line drawn from the low of August 9th, and may initially target the 1783 or 1754 levels, marked by the lows of January 28th and December 15th respectively. If the bears do not want to stop there, then we may see them diving towards the low of September 30th, at 1722, or the low of August 9th, at 1685.
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