I’m eyeing off this nzd chf buy for Monday looks promising
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New Week, I took a buy
I’m out
Told you so, didnt I?
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this is what i think, when that red bearish trend line is lost a buy is good and TP is 3050 and 3080
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I’m looking to short XAU/USD, I have already short XAU/AUD
well well well see what happened to Gold 
the bobble is everlasting I think lol
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Go back and read my whole post, then tell me where I said it will instantly crash. I’m predicting it will crash, but not when.
I also said lots of other markets look set for a hard time. I think my post can be described as fairly accurate.
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Hi @chesterjohn,
Please accept my apologies if my questions below come across as being a “smart-ass”.
Your reply sparked off 1000 questions in my head.
From reading your replies in other threads, you seem to be one of the more experienced traders in this forum, so I am genuinely curious about your views.
Could you please define what you mean by a bubble? How do you personally tell the difference between an asset that is in a bubble vs an asset price rise that is well supported by macro-economic fundamentals?
When you wrote, “there’s no justification for it doubling in 3 years”, do you envision a scenario that, in your opinion, could justify the current price rise in gold?
Also how long is a typical cycle in gold? How do you measure this cycle? And when did the current cycle in gold start?
When you say “so the inevitable answer is a correction”, do you mean a correction in gold prices or these other markets or both?
Also what fundamentals do you believe drives the price of gold? And in what way is the current price of gold detached from them?
Please don’t waste time answering my questions if you’ve already written an analysis describing how you see gold and the markets today, I’d be more than happy with a link to it.
Thanks in advance. Cheers 
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LOL believe me it was everything but accurate!
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Good questions, and I’m by no means saying I’m right, or that the crash I think is coming is imminent, although I think it probably is coming soon depending on how things react to the trade war situations.
Firstly, I’d compare what happened during Covid to what happened during the great financial crisis as it’s labelled in 2008. Huge amounts of money was created by central banks and governments and pumped into the economy to prop everything up. 2008 created a safe haven run, this time it’s created an almost everything run.
In 2008, gold more than doubled over a 3 year period before sharply retracing and stabilising, eventually breaking the double mark about 10 years later. I’d say 10 years is a reasonable doubling period.
Gold and the stock markets have been supported by globalisation and freedom to trade internationally which has seen inflation dropping in the western world and interest rates dropping to near zero everywhere. This has made investment in a non yielding asset and riskier assets more appealing. Gold will always be in demand for several reasons and stocks yield plus mostly grow, so they’re a better bet than bonds which have yielded increasingly little for a long period.
Before Trump even entered office, the likelihood in my opinion was, an increasingly inflationary environment. Central banks don’t have anywhere lower to go than they have been and the right wing movement which is increasing in the western world is very likely to be inflationary. I see this as a negative influence on gold.
Lastly, gold has benefitted from 2 major conflicts in Russia and Ukraine, then Israel and Palestine. There’s positive movement in both, although nowhere near a resolution, but stabilising conflicts is likely to lead to less gold buying.
There’s still things that could benefit gold, the move away from USD being the global currency is certainly one thing that could prop the price up. But my view overall is that things don’t normally shoot to the moon and stay there. There’s lots of reasons why this won’t stay there and that’s the side I see as most likely.
Feel free to disagree and put your point across. Don’t be like the other guy and act like I’m an idiot because either what goes up must keep going up because… because. Or I’m wrong because it hasn’t crashed in the last 3 days when I clearly said I don’t have any idea when it will happen, but I see it coming soon. Soon could be another year or so in this case.
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Hey @chesterjohn,
Thanks for taking the time to type out your thoughts.
Market analysis is very difficult and I’ve had my struggles just like everyone else. My thesis is wildly different from yours but I respect anyone that even makes an attempt to analyze the markets and puts their opinion out their for scrutiny.
Here’s a bit more about my background and my trading / investing philosophy, which will help provide context for my thesis further down:
I take a secular view on the markets and my thesis has been the same for years. I’ve been writing about it since I joined this forum in Oct '24. I wrote a final update to the thread last week with my thoughts and how I see the markets going forward (warning: it’s a pretty dark forecast):
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I think we’re largely in agreement about what’s happening. The big difference is that I’m counting gold as included in the “everything bubble” and you aren’t. I’d say there’s a reasonable argument for both sides, so only the future will tell.
A quick google and I find several economists counting gold in a bubble and others saying it’s probably going to benefit from a crash.
I also don’t think the pain will be as deep or as bad as you do, but there’s absolutely zero precedent for the entire world having too much debt, so that’s just a big guess by anybody.
UK PM suggesting today in the Telegraph that the Govt will intervene to support UK business (not unlike during covid)
“Some people may feel uncomfortable about this – the idea the state should intervene directly to shape the market has often been derided,but we simply cannot cling on to old sentiments when the world is turning this fast.”
One way to help repay debt is to devalue - perhaps Pres Trump’s constant call for Powell to cut rates - stall the stock market decline & devalue the dollar in one sweep.
Worry about prices down the line - short term thinking some would argue.
Anyways a biblical phrase springs to mind - no one puts old wine into new wine skins - different world order.
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Is there that much difference from America corporate welfare today?