This Tech VP Turned Pro Trader Used a Coin Flip to Prove Strategy Doesn’t Matter. Discover What Does!

We’re kicking off this year’s Member Spotlight with a trader who’s as intriguing and dynamic as the markets he takes on– @Dollar_ McGavin!

Originally from Texas, @Dollar_McGavin’s path has taken him across continents, from the buzzing streets of Japan to the scenic landscapes of Europe. A master’s degree in electrical engineering marked the beginning of his career in tech and financial services, but his passion for solving complex problems soon steered him toward the world of trading.

Today, with over 17 years of trading experience, he is a seasoned professional who’s learned that the key to success in trading isn’t about finding the perfect strategy—it’s about mastering the markets and disciplined execution. He says that by focusing on these external factors, traders can make better-informed decisions and reduce the anxiety that comes with constant decision-making. You can get a glimpse of his journey on his insightful thread, Spotting the next trend

Want to know how he made this breakthrough and what lessons he’s learned along the way? In this interview, he shares more about his unique approach, the challenges he’s faced, and the powerful advice he has for traders at any stage of their journey. Trust us, you don’t want to miss it!

So, without further ado…

Let’s give it up for @Dollar_McGavin!


1. Tell us a little bit about yourself. Where are you from? What are your hobbies, interests, favorites?

I’m originally from Texas, but life has taken me all over the world. After completing my master’s degree in electrical engineering, I started a career in tech and financial services. Along the way, I discovered I had a knack for analyzing and solving complex problems, which shaped much of my professional path. This led to a decade long journey across continents—from Japan and Australia to Europe and the Middle East— which culminated in a promotion to the role of Vice President in a large multinational corporation.

In 2012, I left the corporate world to start my own management consulting business, which later pivoted into capital management. My fascination for complex problem solving eventually became the backbone of my trading philosophy.

Outside of trading, I enjoy playing golf, traveling, and spending time with my family. My long-term dream is to build a garage where I can work on classic cars.

2. What inspired you to become a forex trader, and how long have you been trading?

My journey began with a high school stock trading competition in the late 1980s. I had no idea what I was doing but ended up finishing 6th out of 800 students after spotting a parabolic move in Southwest Airlines and YOLO-ing everything into it. While it wasn’t real money, the experience left a lasting impression—it showed me how financial markets can create significant returns in a short time.

Fast forward to 2008, I was traveling extensively for work during the Global Financial Crisis. An ad about trading reignited my curiosity, and I began exploring financial markets. Forex trading appealed to me because of its 24/5 accessibility, which fit my unpredictable schedule.

Trading then became an all-consuming obsession—I was hooked on the challenge and complexity of the markets. That passion grew over the years, evolving from a side interest into a full-time career. Now, after more than 17 years, trading is no longer just a profession but a fundamental part of who I am and how I approach problem-solving, risk, and opportunity in life.

3. What’s your trading strategy and how did you come up with it?

I follow an approach that I call Macro Technical Portfolio Management, focusing on multi-year secular trends. The goal is to identify assets in emerging secular bull markets, buy at undervalued levels ahead of the institutional capital flow, and hold through the multi-year bull runs while keeping an eye out for coming changes in the market and economic conditions. When conditions change, I will rotate out of overvalued assets into undervalued assets in the new emerging trends.

The strategy evolved from years of trial and error, blowing up accounts, and losing an eye-watering amount of money in “tuition.” With the help of a mentor, I realized that my analytical skills from management consulting could be adapted and applied to trading. My approach and process gradually took shape as I started to get a better and deeper understanding of the markets and the forces that drive the secular trends into those “euphoric” parabolic phases.

What attracted me to trading was a vision of time freedom and the financial means to live life the way I wanted. I don’t sit in front of screens all day looking for trades; instead, I dedicate most of my time to analysis while letting the market “do the heavy lifting” once I’m in a position.

4. During the COVID-19 market crash, you continued to buy undervalued stocks despite significant portfolio declines. Were you confident in this decision, and how did you deal with the uncertainty during this time?

The COVID crash was a defining moment. This was my largest open drawdown ever and just looking at it drove my anxiety through the roof. But my analysis was clear: this wasn’t the end of the secular bull but a rare buying opportunity.

I avoided looking at the open P&L as I bought more and more undervalued stocks in green energy, metals mining and battery tech. Whenever my emotions screamed at me to “stop catching falling knives!”, I’d go back to the charts, analyze and re-analyze, reminding myself that I was acting on objective study not impulse. This became the initial foundation for the process that I use today.

No, I can’t say I was confident in the outcome, but I also knew I wasn’t gambling recklessly either.

It eventually paid off when the markets turned around. Within months, the portfolio recovered and soared to all-time highs. It taught me the greatest lesson of my trading career: trust the process, even in the face of uncertainty.

5. Was there a specific moment in your trading experience that made you realize you were on the right path as a trader?

There are two moments that stand out. The first was the post-COVID recovery trades which ended up being my biggest trading win up to that point. The second came later when I learned to trade profitably with random coin flip entries.

The coin flip experiment proved to me that profitability doesn’t come from a trading strategy but from understanding market movements and executing with discipline. It was a breakthrough realization: with a solid grasp of the market and its movements, almost any strategy can be profitable.

6. What advice would you give to traders struggling to make consistent profits?

Focus on understanding the markets instead of searching for the “perfect” strategy. When I was struggling, I was bouncing between trading strategies, focused internally on things like win rates, risk-to-reward ratios or my psychology. I had no real understanding of market movements nor the external forces driving them.

The breakthrough came after I shifted my focus outward and started to study trend movements, technical analysis, market conditions, intermarket correlations, asset potential and how underlying economic conditions influence different asset classes. Analyze twice, trade once became the new mantra. Once I could read the market, the best opportunities jumped out and the strategy to trade those opportunities became a matter of personal preference. When I started to let the market tell me what to trade and when to trade, it eliminated the stress of constant decision-making.

Being patient is extremely important in the learning phase. Developing the necessary skills to compete with professionals and institutions takes time. The rewards, however, make the effort worthwhile.

7. What’s the most overrated trading advice and why?

“Fix your trading psychology” is often overemphasized. Trading psychology is valuable for seasoned professionals, but it wasn’t what kept me from becoming profitable. Even though I gained a ton of trading knowledge and skills after 12 years of intense study, my issue was misapplying it all, not mindset. And no amount of psychology was ever going to make up for this shortfall.

My advice would be to build a strong foundation of analytical and trading skills first. Once those are in place, psychology becomes a fine-tuning tool to enhance performance rather than the next crutch.

8. What keeps you motivated to keep learning and improving even after years of trading?

I find the process of market analysis incredibly rewarding—it’s like solving a complex puzzle where the pieces are constantly shifting. Seeing my insights play out on the charts and in real-world trends is energizing and gets me out of bed every morning.

Beyond that, the financial markets are vast, and there’s always something new to learn. Whether it’s economic history, a new asset class, or refining my approach, the constant evolution is an exciting challenge.

9. How do you personally measure success as a trader?

For me, success is about lifestyle. Trading isn’t just about profits; it’s a means to achieve the freedom to live life on my terms.

I measure success by asking: Does trading still energize me? Am I maintaining the work-life balance I envisioned? Is my health—emotional, physical, and spiritual—in check?

It’s an ongoing process but the goal is to have trading support and contribute to my lifestyle rather than the other way around.

10. Non-forex related question: What does a typical day in your life look like when you’re not trading?

In winter, I focus on my indoor golf game and relax at the spa on quiet days when it’s less crowded. I meet my wife for lunch, pick up the kids from school, and enjoy family activities on the weekends.

In summer, I’m often on the golf course or traveling around Europe with my family. The challenge is balancing my passion for trading with a fulfilling personal life.

11. Can you describe a specific “aha” moment (beyond those you’ve shared) where a small change in mindset or practice dramatically improved your results?

When I realized that long-term trading isn’t just “buy and hold” or passive index investing as often portrayed in trading forums. Long-term trading can be just as, if not more, profitable than day trading or short-term trading, with significantly less time spent in front of the screen. Once I realized how this aligned perfectly with my desire for time freedom and financial independence, I no longer had any doubts about what type of trader I wanted to be. This in turn allowed me to narrow the learning focus, accelerating my progress and development.

12. What specific realizations or challenges convinced you to make the leap from part-time to full-time trading?

There were three pivotal realizations:

  1. After over 12 years in the game, reading hundreds of books, and trying countless strategies, I realized the pro traders I knew didn’t necessarily have more knowledge than me—they just applied it differently.

  2. I was approaching a point in my life where it felt like “now or never.”

  3. My post-COVID crash trades proved I was very close to success. I knew that dedicating my full mental capacity to trading would allow me to figure out the final pieces, just as I had with my Management Consulting business.

  4. You emphasize adhering to a process. How do you balance the need for discipline with the flexibility required to adapt to changing markets?

A big part of my process is analyzing the current market and assessing where it’s headed. This approach focuses on objectivity rather than flexibility. My philosophy is about buying and selling when the market changes. Since my analysis constantly looks for these shifts, I’m inherently adapting to the market changes.

14. You’ve talked about struggles and breakthroughs. How do you handle plateaus in skill development or performance when progress feels stagnant?

I dive deeply into specific areas of learning during intense periods but find that stepping away for a couple of weeks is equally important. This time away allows my subconscious to process the new information. While it doesn’t feel productive at first, by the end of the break, I usually experience a flood of new insights.

15. Your mentor played a significant role in shaping your journey. What key lesson or advice from your mentor has stayed with you the most?

Patience is a huge advantage in today’s fast-paced, social media-dominated world. My mentor taught me to be flexible when measuring profitability. For example, in long-term trading, the portfolio’s appreciation over a quarter or year isn’t as critical as its growth over the investment lifetime. Many assets begin appreciating slowly, gain momentum over years, and then go parabolic in the final phase. I often exited too early, discouraged by the slow start, missing the life-changing gains I could have made if I had the patience to hang on until the end.

16. For traders unable to commit full-time but aiming for that goal, what would you recommend as their top priorities to focus on now?

Don’t put the cart before the horse. Experience has taught me that part-time trading was not one of those professions that I could “learn while on the job.” I would recommend resisting the urge to trade and using the limited time available to focus on acquiring a deep understanding of markets, trends, and conditions. In my case, this foundational knowledge of market movements became my “edge” and eliminated the lifelong quest of trying to find that elusive “profitable trading strategy”.

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Great interview.

@Dollar_McGavin thanks for your contributions to this forum over the past few months, they have been invaluable to me. I have always preferred the long-term approach to trading, as opposed to investing, and your lessons have inspired me to continue along that path.

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Thank you for sharing your experiences and philosophy!

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@Dollar_McGavin

What a cool journey!

I really like this mindset.

@Dollar_McGavin Any recommendations on how we can do this?

Great interview!

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Nice!!! Always something to learn

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Thanks for sharing your experience!

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Hi @Dollar_McGavin,

Thanks for sharing your experiences here … wish all the best for your trading journey :slight_smile:

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As always, amazing insights from @Dollar_McGavin. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us and patiently answering our (more like my) n00b questions!

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That’s gold, right there.

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I’m assuming you mean how to acquire “this foundational knowledge of market movements”? If I misunderstood, please let me know.

IMO, the minimum skills a discretionary trader needs to learn is:

  1. being able to assess and rank setups / potential opportunities, i.e. what does an A+ set up look like vs an average C set up vs a high risk setup that should be avoided
  2. assess market conditions

When I was lacking these skills, I would blame losses on a faulty strategy and look for another strategy. In reality, I lost because I was trading “blindly” by taking risky / sub-optimal setups and/or trading in unsuitable market conditions.

So I would recommend starting there.

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Much respect @TYGMedia :pray: … wishing you the same, my friend.

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@samewise, I’ll add this to my previous reply for anyone who’s interested.

This is a gold chart that I posted in the Spotting the next trend thread 1 month ago. You can see in the chart that plotted out the 2 most probable paths I foresaw gold taking.

I wrote extensively about the market conditions in that thread for those interested…
TLDR: Gold is in a secular bull market and at the beginning stages of the dynamic / parabolic phase.

Here is an update of the chart taken this morning:

I noted where the A+, B and C buying opportunities for me were 1 month ago. Now price followed the blue path more than the yellow path but didn’t get below blue support level where I think the optimum buying opportunity (for me) was.

The old struggling me would look at this chart and say “ok, so what?”, not think any more of it and move on to try and find the next “perfect” strategy. The current me looks at this chart and sees the psychological differences in my / the trader’s mindset.

The A+ opportunity is the optimum low risk / high reward opportunity where professional traders let the market come to them. The B and C opportunities are higher risk, lesser reward where I was chasing after the market as a struggling trader.

Just to note, the A+++ buying opportunities in my opinion was back in 2020, I got in to the space and built up positions in precious metals 2021 - 2022 in A++ opportunities when gold was trading $1750 - $1900 (I made some minor mistakes, still learning :rofl:) so I didn’t feel the need to add to the position.

Hope this was clear. Got to get to the spa now before the crowd shows up! :rofl:.

Have a great Friday everyone! :coffee: :croissant:

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Great insights! Your focus on process and patience really stands out. Trusting your analysis, especially through uncertainty like the COVID crash, shows how important it is to stick to your strategy. The realization that long-term trading can be as profitable as day trading is key, and the advice to build a strong foundation before diving in is perfect for part-time traders. Thanks for sharing these valuable lessons!

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Looking at this, I think I do a lot of chasing! Never thought of it this way. I think that’s I problem I have, always wanting to be in a trade. It puts me in trades where the outcome isn’t favorable from the start.

I use myfxbook to track my trade performance, and I know there’s a stat in there about how long my trade was been in profit or in a loss, while still open. I wonder if that’s something I need to keep a closer eye on.

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Looking Forward to learning

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