Now all of us FX junkies can take a break and analyze statistics for next, and the following week’s movements. The market is closed, and we can tear ourselves away from the screen 
My thoughts on the gap is that it will, once again, close down. Look for a gain of around 10-20 pips and get ready to buy long for a short period after the gap (which lines up similarly with the strategy posted by Shr1k a few days ago).
Have a great week, and I’ll “see” you all on Sunday. Cheers and be safe!
I gotta say, I do like your 1:30 CST short trade. I haven’t lost on it yet, I had to stay in it a little longer than I planned, but it still worked out.
Good evening folks,
The gap between the sessions did not really materialize, although the low of the opening bar did move lower than Friday’s close. Tonight well tell us whether or night our most recent trend will continue or whether its abating and a new trend is emerging.
I will update the board tomorrow morning for the 7am trade. Have a great evening!
The conditions for the 7am trade did not line up this morning (the 6:30am CST bar closed down), but I will keep an eye open for the AU open trade and update this thread later. As a quick observation…keep a very close eye on what is going on now. The trend seems to be evolving (the move overnight was no where near as drastic, volumes are significantly reduced, and Friday’s bullish move was very strong). We’ll see where the market takes us with the EURUSD pair today.
Good luck!
Well, the AU trade didn’t line up today (the 3:30 bar closed up once again)…but I’ll keep an eye on it for tomorrow.
Tonight’s session is going to be interesting. Without the US involved in the major trading transactions today during the US session time, the pair ranged throughout the day.
Get ready folks, tonight is going to be a profitable night Good luck!
I have a question, whether the following is considered a good trade (because first I thought that I made a very stupid thing, then I was happy with this):
On Friday when the EUR/USD was getting very high (I though “news with short term effect - few hours probably & I’ll be out of the market before it closes”) and I was sure that it will go down before the market closes. And I was waiting to go up after the 0.50 Fib, which is 1.3583 in my chart. So I started entering with a short position. However EUR/USD continued to go up, however I entered again - short, the idea: “trying to enter the short position when the EUR was overpriced against the USD”. I actually ended up making 9 short positions within about 10-15 pips interval (which I consider a very stupid thing to do). Eventually on Monday I was -400, as the market went up again. And of course I was so angry with me and so disappointed that I did not went deeper into the news and I was actually playing against the market - I see that the market was going up, but still I entered 9 short positions!!! Yesterday I even went short on the EUR/CHF, because somehow this is a minor currency pair (thanks to the babypips school). And sometimes I use it to minimize loses - before I read that it is a minor currency pair.
Today I wake up and I see that I’m +400 on EUR/USD - finally it went South - I even lost the best time to exit the market. And +262 (124 pips) on the EUR/CHF.
Overall I made 599.2 pips in my demo account from Friday until today.
My question is what do you think were my mistakes?
My opinion:
Forgot to add that I was without any stops and any limits. I think that the stops are not very useful, as sometimes the EUR/USD is making huge jumps. However I start thinking of learning how to use the limits, as I’ve missed the best time to exit the market and it was around one Fib level.
Good morning friends,
The 7am trade did not line up this morning (the 6:30am bar closed down)…also, in light of the US session closure yesterday and the HUGE bearish move during the AU session, it would not have been wise to enter at that time due to possible volatility (in fact, over night we saw a complete retracement of the bearish move during the London session.
I will update the board later with info on the AU trade. Have a great day, and good luck!
I will use this post to answer both this and your other post.
I do not recommend opening multiple positions to offset a losing position at any point. This shows indecision and a lack of confidence in the entry point. All of us have done it at some time during our beginning stages, and it leaves you in a very vulnerable position (similar to saying “Hit Me” at a blackjack table when your cards total 20 out of 21 points ;)). It is best to pick a position, set a stop and a limit, and let the market do its thing…believe me, you lose much less sleep that way ;).
The second thing that I have found to be a major mistake is trying to determine what the high (or low) of a move is going to be before it occurs (picking new, short-term highs and new, short-term lows). I have found that letting the market determine its high or low before a retracement is much more accurate. Any pair will give you clues as to when it is going to make a move, we just have to listen hard enough to determine what these clues mean.
Also, every new trader should ask themselves this question about their demo account if they are in over-extended positions…“Would I do this if I had real funds invested?” If the answer is “No,” there is no way that they should be in the positions.
Finally, in reference to your second post, in my opinion it is never good to be in a position without a stop. Being in draw-down for an extended period of time in a losing trade is the last thing you want (and a good way to max out the margin in your account). The key to setting a successful stop is often knowing where support or resistance is, and then setting it slightly beyond that point. That way, if you get “stopped out,” at least you know that the trend moved in a different direction then it has been moving.
Of course, one of the best ways to determine a stop for a long term strategy is backtesting. Often times, you will learn the absolute best places to position your stop/limit based on historical movement of a currency pair.
I heard someone say this awhile ago and I have lived by it ever since: “If you’re not well familiar with a security (any security), you have no business trading it.” I have found this to be true a number of times. I thoroughly analyze a currency pair before even thinking about taking a position in. I will generally look at how the currency pair has moved over the last 10 years, the last 2 years, and then recently before I even begin setting up current support and resistance levels.
I encourage you to continue “paper” trading, but recommend that you do not look at a live account until you can be entirely sure of your positions. The wonderful, and painful thing about trading is that your only enemy in the game is yourself. Trading will reveal all of your great, and not-so-pleasant tendencies. It will force you to confront these head-on and no other source that I’ve found can be more brutally honest than self-assessment. However, if you can master your own tendencies, the rest is a walk in the park.
As a wise man once said, “He who knows others is wise, but he who knows himself is truly enlightened.”
Hopefully this helps. Please let me know if you have any other questions and I will answer them as best I can. I wish you the best of luck. Have a great day, and happy trading!
Thank you, tradetilidie! Thank you for all this. You’re right that I’d never do this in a real account. You’re right that I should think a LOT before entering the market - which is something I do not do. Also I should read a LOT too. For sure I’ll ask more questions. The problem is that I do not have enough time and I’m trying to jump and to skip some things. However in FX this is not working at all.
It certainly does take time…be sure to remember that patience pays off both literally and metaphorically. As long as you are constantly willing to learn, the market will gladly teach you ;).
There are some sobering statistics out there with regard to trading in general. Of all traders out there, approximately 5% even broach break-even…and of those, only 1-2% ever turn a real profit from trading. There are additional statistics that indicate that if a trader begins a live account within the first 2 months of trading, they are significantly more likely to fail overall than someone who studies the market for 2 years before making their first trade.
Now, there are exceptions to this rule, and I can’t say that I take all of these numbers as the “gospel truth.” However, there is an important lesson that can be learned from them. The longer time you take to really learn from a currency pair, commodity, stock, or any other form of investment, the better chance you have at becoming successful.
Once again, patience and persistence…patience and persistence
Ciao!
dear sir,
are you a demo trader / real. what broker you using. thanks
I personally prefer to use PFG Best as a broker. They claim to not take the other side of the trade against you and have very tight spreads. I use their Best Direct MT4 platform and have had a better experience with them than anyone I’ve used thus far.
thanks sir, how long you have been trading, are you demo or real trader, are you in profits,
I became involved in market securities around 2002 focusing primarily on fundamental-based analysis, and progressed to TA after that. In reference to profitability, yes, my trades are largely profitable.
The thing to keep in mind is that profit is relative. I don’t consider a trader to be successful after one month of profitable trading, the question is “Where do they stand in the long run?” Over the long run there are some months that are more (or less) profitable than others (November/December are historically very volatile months in the FX market). However, overall my trades win more than they lose.
In reference to demo trading, I reserve that activity for when I have a backtested theory that I would like to test in a near-live environment before considering enacting the trade. However, for beginners I recommend using the demo account with at least 2 months of consecutive profits before considering trading live funds (and then starting a small live account after that with very small lot sizes).
Hopefully this answers your questions. Good luck!
Alright guys,
The AU open trade conditions did not line up this afternoon, so we’ll take another look at it tomorrow. As a side note, there is profit to be made in both long and short positions the way the EURUSD is currently trending. Even though the AU open trade did not materialize, keep an eye open for a possible shorting opportunity not far into the AU session (this is not guaranteed, but a strong possibility).
Good luck tonight, and happy trading!
Good morning all,
The conditions for the 7am trade did not line up this morning, so we’ll look for the trade again tomorrow.
As a side note, there are LARGE amounts of volume this morning, as well as during the overnight session, with very little movement. The bears and the bulls are battling ferociously for control now. Be wary of a possible expanding range movement if some type of breakout does occur. These types of movement are extremely volatile and are nearly impossible to read during the short term (meaning: pay more attention to the larger intervals than the short term movements).
If this type of movement does occur and you have an open order, I recommend that you give (or leave) some slack in your stop. If you don’t have an order in, my recommendation is to wait before placing your order until the expanding range movement dissipates and clear trend emerges.
Good luck fellow traders, cheers!
Hey guys,
I apologize for the late update, but the conditions for our AU trade lined up this evening. Here is the setup:
Entry: 1.37471
S/L: 1.37871
TP: 1.37371
Exit bar: open of 7:30pm CST
This trade looks especially enticing today because of the recent bullish movement in the pair. Our S/L is set above most trend-trader’s adjusted R1’s and, unless the pair decides to edge closer to the year high of 1.3842, we should be a prime position for not just a short-term gain, but possibly an extended short-selling position.
We’ll see how this one plays out. Good luck!
Good morning friends,
Once again, I apologize for the late update…life certainly has its busy points ;). Alright, here are how the numbers played out for the AU trade last night:
Entry: 1.37436
Exit: 1.37707 (open of the 7:30pm CST bar)
However, if you held on overnight for an extended short-selling position (as I mentioned), you would have realized a 30-40 pip profit.
[B]The conditions lined up this morning for our 7am trade. Here is the setup:[/B]
Entry: 1.37826
Exit: at the open of the 11am CST bar
S/L: 1.38426
TP: 1.37626
Once again, our stop loss is set beyond most R1’s and regardless of the interval you are viewing the EURUSD pair at, it is over-ripe for a decent move down. The chances of us being stopped out on this trade are minimal at the moment, while the chances of us making not only this position, a significant gain on a longer selling opportunity are very possible. I will update the board as soon as the trade is completed. Good luck in today’s session!
The 7am trade worked out in our favor this morning. Here is how the numbers break down:
Entry: 1.37826
Exit: 1.37626
Trade length: 2 bars
Profit: 20 pips ($200)
The beauty of trades like these is that you may not have spotted these short-term opportunities by “eyeballing” price action because, as you can see, the bar after the open moved down shortly, and completely retraced and ended up as an up close.
Keep a close eye on the action today. As I mentioned yesterday, based on the 30 minute movement, we may have entered a period of expanding range, where the market is trying to determine whether the pair will continue to uptrend or make a significant move down. Be wary of trading shorter intervals during this period as they can become extremely volatile.
Good luck today!