Private retail traders don’t move price.
The simplest strategy works, has always worked and will always work. Which is to follow long-term price trends.
The majority of private retail traders are short throughout an uptrend and long throughout a downtrend and it doesn’t matter how many of them do this, the trend continues. and it doesn’t matter how many private retail traders go with the trend, the majority of them go against it and the majority lose.
If you trade against dealer, yes, but if its exchange you always take liquidity with your market order.
You can’t have it both ways. As an example, you will see that GBP/USD ran a consistent downtrend from 01/06/21 for 11 months. Throughout all that time the majority of private retail traders with positions open on that pair were long. So these guys bought and bought again and again for 15 months and still price went down.
Hey Ontario .
First of all really thanks for sharing your idea .
But the thing I’ve accomplished by error and trial and reading a few books and digging into psychology world of trading i found out that
1: if the technicals show a big move and fundamentals yield to something else the setup probably is just a hunt for retail traders (like when news are already priced in market)
2: the principles are usually the same as they are always but they highly depend on fundamentals, timing and the day we are trading at
3: entry is the most important part of trading i guess cause the meaning of waiting and making money is the most tricky thing and the balance of waiting enough but not loosing trade defines itself in entry part
Exactly were emotions get into play
So i guess newbie traders usually get fool because they don’t have structures for entry and let emotions control them by every candle that forms
I’m not an expert for sure but these are the hints i found out in this month.
Thank you again for being helpful in this community.
Hey tommor
Thanks for replying and sharing opinions .
Yes exactly i mean after all there is a trend in market and in each correction traders that ask is it end of the trend or not
Hey matDerKater.
Thanks for brilliant explanation.
Yes it is kind of my problem too that there are really some bullsh*t toturials and some awesome ones so which one i should trust cause each of them would work in some times. So the best thing was testing each of them for like a month and that’s why it usually take years for a trader to find out which strategy fits with him nicely.
And that’s just half of the stroy the other half is controlling emotions i guess and everybodey knows it has different aspects .
I haven’t read all the comments, so apologies if I am repeating.
I believe to be successful with live trading, you need to be successful with demo trading, I would say for at least 4-6 months. Only then would you have some idea that your plan/strategy works. If you are able to demo trade for more like 6-12 months, that would give you decent exposure to a number of difference market situations and show the robustness of your plan/strategy. Have you been successful in demo trading?
I should clarify that when demo trading, you need to trade EXACTLY how you will when live trading e.g. same opening balance, same lot size, same number of open trades, same stop loss parameters etc, following the plan/strategy you successfully developed in demo trading.
I personally spent a few months back testing my strategy, going through about 10 years of daily charts working out and writing down the result of every trade I would have taken if trading at that time. I then spent about 5 months demo trading. Then I went live and I have been successful since (2 years and 3 months ago)!
This is just my opinion and what worked for me. Good luck with your trading journey 
Look into Capital Hungry, I learned fundamental and how these need to be applied to price action. I left indicators behind and simplified trading throigh Jev’s course, load of free content on his Youtube. One of the best mentors.
Thank you turtle girl that was literally one of the best replies.
Yes i think you are a hundred percent right and for answering your question i am successful (but low amount of profit) on demo trading for like a month i wish i can be a more profitable trader too.
Btw the main setup i trade successfully is trend based though i have other setups in my plan like counter trends or harmonics or classic patterns. What about you what kind of setups you are successful at?
In contrast to what many believe, it is not the setup that is the most important. It is your bias. Where did price come from and what is it seeking? Aka where is the liquidity that is drawing price like a magnet.
At first it might look complex, but it just takes lots of practice and strictly following the rules existing in this algorithmic based (the market being controlled by a programmed system with manual interventions by central banks) method.
You can check out ICT on Youtube.
Hey Mcell
Thanks for sharing opinions
Well i guess learning how to develop fundamentals in daily trading is a lost piece that many traders like me aren’t aware if so surely I’ll check the dude you introduced
Two years!! I have been trading for nearly 20 years, and I am still not consistently profitable. I know what my faults are, and unfortunately keep committing them. Chief among these are not sticking to my rules, and not being disciplined in keeping a journal.
Why do you not follow your own rules?
I struggled with that myself for a long time and came to realize that you must know yourself in order to be disciplined.
I believe it is down to that old devil, fear of missing out!
Very true statement - going against the trend is known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy or Gamblers Fallacy - the Monte Carlo aspect is a long story (1913), but worth a read for learners.
Anyways happens that commercials go against the trend and therefore by default speculators do the opposite - and both succeed.
As Eur rises against Gbp commercials sell their Euros for Pounds - money is stock and as stock rises in price commercials sell.
These same Euros were purchased with Pounds when those Euros were cheaper.
Here is my EG chart - cannot remember the detail of the up arrow but would have been a Fundamental reason, likely recent UK political/economic chaos - anyways that was a ‘setup’ time to get ready to sell Euros and buy Pounds.
When eventually price reaches back down to the horiz (which goes back about 18 months) then time to take stock and figure next likely direction.
Edit: the up arrow was when some of the details of the UK mini budget were leaked - the next large up candle was the actual announcement.
A six year old comprehensive video from trader Tom Dante…
Contains explicit language but very informative and straight to the point!
Serious traders should definitely watch this… Enjoy
Too true. I have a friend that only uses simple moving averages and nothing else. He pulls no less than 10% per month on the 1 hour chart.
10% per month?
After 4 years, of putting 10% on a 10K account every month without fail, would turn that account into 1M.
I don’t think there are very many traders out there delivering that sort of return. Making 10% on some months is one thing. But every month?
I agree. I can understand why beginners don’t make this sort of return but I have always puzzled why it seems competent experienced traders can’t do it either.
(By the way, I know why I don’t…)
Hey EdHirsr.
Well i think for el brooks it took 10 years to become profitable so it is fair to take a long time for becomeing a profitable trader.
But maybe you weren’t under the pressure to make it work i think sometimes when we are under a little pressure to do things we do it better.
