i have being on eurgbp for some week now and the drawdown is massive, i wouldnt know if someone can give an analysis on these, or i should just close the trade and bear the huge loss.
I will be selling EUR/GBP tomorrow (again) based on GBP strength. Holding only until Thursday (probably about midday), which is UK General Election day, before exit polls and forecasting on the day takes hold. GBP has been strong since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister and concluded a new draft Brexit deal with the EU.
The 50EMA slope on all 7 major GBP charts favours GBP.
EUR/GBP is in a consistent downtrend. This is no time to be long. The GE results on Thursday may shake things up. A Conservative failure to win a majority will send GBP down. A Labour win will cause it to crash. A Conservative win that meets expectations might trigger profit-taking and a minor retracement: or maybe some continued buying: or maybe nothing at all. An unexpectedly large Conservative majority might cause a further GBP rise: but this might be minor only: or maybe nothing at all.
There is a small risk of small GBP price rises. There is a small risk of large or very large GBP falls. The probable outcome will be no change or minor price rises or falls.
Short GBP has already been a series of good trades since the summer. I will be in cash by the time the polling stations close.
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I can only see it falling all week long
Hi 4king,
The first questions I have to ask are what strategy are you using to trade eurgbp? Also did you have a stop loss in place? The way you describe your drawdown to be ‘massive’ is worrying. It should never get to this stage. I would recommend going back to demo account and learning about risk management so you are not in this predicament again. To analyse eurgbp from scratch I have gone back to the daily then 4hr then 1hr for trade entries:
Red lines are recent highs and lows.
Purple is a recent descending channel.
The 4hr close up shows price breaking the descending channel. Then re-testing the bottom support line now resistance.
The one hour shows 2 possible entries which have been circled. One where there is a retest to bottom channel, the other where it rests the bottom support turning resistance.
Overall it still looks bearish. It’s a downtrend so no reason to be long.
Well i have being on the trade from 26 Nov, hosea strategy, the combination of bollinger band, rsi, and stocastic, all my condition are meant for a buy, i place the trade for a buy of 20pips to the next retracement point, their was a huge pullback due to the news, hope the market will reverse back due to the condition of the strategy i used, their was a huge pull back earlier this month, hopeing it will hit my entry point, so i can breakeven or close the trade, but it doesn’t, instead it drawdown further than previous, i should have use a stop Los, but i follow normal risk management, buy using normal loss size,
The uneasy part of it is i twin traded it, but as the market open today i closes it, $65 lost,
No emotion i will gain it back.
i d look to sell at the 50 fib if it s gonna have enough strenght to go till there, a retracement is due, also divergence on 1hr pointing up, but overall weak, ofcourse unless something changes and demand comes in, but at this point that s my plan(only my opinion, not advice)