Hi Happy , I believe I spotted Bearish Three Drive is being formed in 4 hour chart 
We have to sell around 1.0400. What do you think? Is my chart valid?
Hey, congrats! Keep it up 
Looks like a bearish three drive, indeed! From a technical standpoint, it looks like the signals are lining up for a short. I believe the stochastic is also in the overbought region on the 4-hour, adding confirmation for a wave down. It’s just that fundamentals don’t seem to support US dollar strength though, and that’s what I’m a bit worried about.
Did you set your orders for a short at 1.0400?
I saw a 4 hr chart that Happy had put up with the price currently at the top of a upward trending channel. That suggests it’s time to sell but something I noted was the topping out process where small trading ranges develop at the top of each cycle. I’ve got them highlighted in little squares in the above 5 hr chart.
I think it’s something to note.
Hi Happy,
I didn’t set short order. (if I had set at 1.0420 I would’ve bagged some pips ).
Now, I’m planning to long. just wait to see how far the price will retrace. ( I spotted another Elliott Wave in 1 hour chart) what’s your plan on aud/usd pair?
That AUD/USD 4-hour channel that we’ve been watching for the past few days is still holdin’ like a boss and the pair is currently crawling towards the bottom. There’s also a nice bullish divergence on the pair since stochastic made lower lows. Does this mean that the channel support will hold?
As always, I’d love to hear what you think of this setup I’m looking at!
isn’t that a bearish divergence on the the stochastic?
I am agree.
Though both daily & 4h the AUD/USD is running on a rising channel. But present chart (daily) show’s that it would difficult to hold that the channel support. Monday price close with large bearish candle and it broke the support (now turned Resistance) at about 1.0325. Next support seen at about 1.0100 area.
However; the present condition of the market i prefer only sell. I will prefer to wait for price action at about 1.0325 or wait for a high probability candle setup.
Nope that is a bullish divergence. With the stochtastic pushing even lower that is signaling price is not done pushing up. Its hidden divergence in the school
Hidden Divergence | Trading Divergences | Learn Forex Trading
The channel also sits on the 50% Fib line from the high (29/02/12) to the low (01/06/2012). On the H1 chart it is showing signs of holding so I am just waiting for a nice bullish H1 candle before I enter this trade.
Looks like I jumped the gun a bit with my entry. Got stopped out overnight with a big spike in price. It is still looking that it may hold still though.
In the 4hr chart there is a very strong bullish pin bar forming up. It needs to be confirmed though. The lower support line of the trending channel has held as well.
Did anyone get in on this trade?
I jumped in a long trade! Although I didn’t catch the best possible price at the 1.0200 bottom, I was able to catch a part of the trend by buying at market (1.0260) yesterday.
How about you? Did you go long also?
Wondering why AUD/USD is easily breaking above the rising channel on the 4-hour chart? Maybe it’s because some traders are looking at the longer time frames! If we use the weekly chart, then the next possible resistance will be the 1.0750 handle near the top of the falling channel. That’s 200 pips away, folks!
Interesting. Gonna wait and see. I would agree that there is definitely confirmed support on the bottom trendline but determining the top still presents a challenge.
I agree with you, and it is a great study in looking at a number of timeframes - but looking at the Daily, the top of the channel coincides with a big number (1.0500), Price is overextended away from the ema’s, we’re in the top half of an overall range (and ranges have been pretty rough across the board, recently), and there is a little RSI divergence creeping in, too. So while I agree with you, I have a short order in place just in case!! I placed it late last night (GMT) - if it does not trigger and Price actually simply pushes further up then I will certainly get interested again around that level that you have highlighted on your Weekly (it’s on mine, too). The biggest thing that I have worked on recently is being prepared quickly to switch my bias between long and short without hesitating too much. Interesting analysis, though, thanks for posting, nice to see a clear chart for once on BP!!
ST
I think I will need to see a strong push away from the H4 channel as at the moment it is still hovering around the topof the channel so I think price could go either way today/tomorrow.
Agreed - if today’s Daily closes as a high test then I am interested, will look at an order. If it closes above the channel then I’ll jog on to the next setup.