The channel also sits on the 50% Fib line from the high (29/02/12) to the low (01/06/2012). On the H1 chart it is showing signs of holding so I am just waiting for a nice bullish H1 candle before I enter this trade.
Looks like I jumped the gun a bit with my entry. Got stopped out overnight with a big spike in price. It is still looking that it may hold still though.
In the 4hr chart there is a very strong bullish pin bar forming up. It needs to be confirmed though. The lower support line of the trending channel has held as well.
Did anyone get in on this trade?
I jumped in a long trade! Although I didn’t catch the best possible price at the 1.0200 bottom, I was able to catch a part of the trend by buying at market (1.0260) yesterday.
How about you? Did you go long also?
Wondering why AUD/USD is easily breaking above the rising channel on the 4-hour chart? Maybe it’s because some traders are looking at the longer time frames! If we use the weekly chart, then the next possible resistance will be the 1.0750 handle near the top of the falling channel. That’s 200 pips away, folks!
Interesting. Gonna wait and see. I would agree that there is definitely confirmed support on the bottom trendline but determining the top still presents a challenge.
I agree with you, and it is a great study in looking at a number of timeframes - but looking at the Daily, the top of the channel coincides with a big number (1.0500), Price is overextended away from the ema’s, we’re in the top half of an overall range (and ranges have been pretty rough across the board, recently), and there is a little RSI divergence creeping in, too. So while I agree with you, I have a short order in place just in case!! I placed it late last night (GMT) - if it does not trigger and Price actually simply pushes further up then I will certainly get interested again around that level that you have highlighted on your Weekly (it’s on mine, too). The biggest thing that I have worked on recently is being prepared quickly to switch my bias between long and short without hesitating too much. Interesting analysis, though, thanks for posting, nice to see a clear chart for once on BP!!
ST
I think I will need to see a strong push away from the H4 channel as at the moment it is still hovering around the topof the channel so I think price could go either way today/tomorrow.
Agreed - if today’s Daily closes as a high test then I am interested, will look at an order. If it closes above the channel then I’ll jog on to the next setup.
looks like the AUD/USD may be following the daily channel.
I wouldnt be so sure. It is still around the top of the H4 channel and has not pushed away from it yet. It still could end up reversing this week. ( I take it you were talking about the longer term channel best seen on the weekly chart).
And it looks like the daily worked. But I COULD be wrong.
Yep starting to reverse as predicted. FOMC statement has casued a big drop in last few minutes. Going to wait for the daily close before entering short i think. Also a LOT of news tomorrow affecting nearly every currency pair so it could be a very volatile day tomorrow.
Yes, I think that it is about to trigger my short order. I absolutely hear what you’re saying about volatility tomorrow, but fortunately I went short Cable yesterday (still holding) and long USD/CAD earlier on today
and have profit locked in, so effectively I am staking my winnings there on an AUD/USD Short. If it works out then fantastic, if I get stopped out on AUD/USD then I’m still ahead on the three. Nice to be getting some decent and slightly-more-consistent moves for once!
ST
Yes there has been some good moves recently. I have a sell order in place for aud/usd. I have quite a tight stop on this one though but hopefuly we should be ok! Lets hope the news tmr helps and not hinders!
Arghhh, it looks like Draghi messed things up a bit for this one. Talk about giving mixed signals!
Looks like the top of the channel on the 4-hour time frame (1.0500) held for now, but I’m curious as to how it all will play out during the NFP release.
Anyone still long? Short? Locking in profits?
Lol yes, Draghi is off my Christmas card list.
I was short, and was stopped out by 20 pips or so on the spike. One of those things, this sensitive market just goes a little crazy sometimes. I did not place an order under yesterday’s high test as it was very long and with the channel in mind I didn’t fancy the R:R. With it being NFP today and with yesterday’s lunacy having mucked up a few of the charts I haven’t entered anything new, so I’m just still in my USD/CAD long.
ST
Check out the weakness in the AUD cross pairs.
Two very good examples are EURAUD and GBPAUD.
Long solid down trends in the daily chart for both. The EURAUD pair made record lows once again.
Yes, agreed, EUR/AUD in particular has been lovely to trade recently. Like shooting fish in a barrel!