Do you think the rising channel on AUD/USD’s daily chart will hold? This pair has been at it for nearly three months now! The next support seems to be at the 1.0400 area, but is a breakdown possible anytime soon?
I’ve been long since earlier today on this pair. I saw some reversal candles indicating that the trendline did hold and the price had bounced. Currently I am down 46 pips, have my fingers crossed on this one, but not too worried yet since it is the daily chart. Plus I searched and found your chart and got a bit more confidence.
Setup was long at 1.0489 (market), Stop at 1.0400, Target at 1.0700.
Hey guys, first time posting on this forum. Anyway, im really excited about the aud.usd, and wanted to share my thoughts. Right now im up 80 pips from the move from the top, but this afternoons rally really bit into me. So im about to short the pair again. My stop loss is 1.0425, and my target levels will be 1.0300 and 1.0230. Wish me luck!
I like your style. My short from last week got stopped today for +100 pips. I will look to get in at 1.0550 but might take the rest of the week off because I can
Slightly frustrating week for me on the AUDUSD. It has not been trending and is moving in a yo-yo manner. Up down up down. The yo-yo movement is clearly evident on the 1 hour chart. It is hard to trade when prices move like roller coasters, up one moment, down the other moment.
On the daily chart, i do see a wave 4 on the Elliott Wave Count. According to Elliott Wave theory, wave 4’s are especially prone to exhibit choppy behaviours. This might explain why we are seeing the yo-yo pattern on the 1 hour chart.
Some technical traders love Elliott Wave. Others dismiss it as mumbo-jumbo hocus pocus. To each their own. Elliott Wave requires constant adjusting of the wave count. Therefore i only use Elliott Wave on my daily and weekly charts. And i will only use it when necessary and when i see a clear wave count. I will post a daily chart to show the Elliott Wave Count soon.
ya aud.usd is definitely following risk trends, and i know that it has a strong correlation with the sp500. I just dont see a channel break coming this soon. First because i think we retest the 1425 level on the s&p, and secondly because QE3 means a weakening of the us dollar. I might look to start cost averaging on a short starting at 1.0450.
AUDUSD is forming a nice Elliott Wave bullish pattern. I believe we are currently in wave 4, which is a corrective or counter-trend wave. One thing about Elliott Wave trading is that the wave counts require constant re-adjusting. To solve this inherent issue, I prefer to use Elliott Wave trading on the daily and weekly charts. And voila! Problem “solved!!”
The daily chart below shows the wave count.
On the 4hr chart, wave 4 is obeying a falling channel. Once price breaks above the falling channel, it should be the start of wave 5. Watch carefully and wait patiently for wave 5. It can a really powerful bullish up move.
I’ve always been a fan of retracement plays so this short setup on AUD/USD definitely caught my eye. The pair just broke below support around 1.0375 but seems ready to pull back. Now the 38.2% Fib level is right in line with that former support, which could act as resistance later on. But will stochastic reach the overbought region in time?
surely this pair can only fall in the long term.With China prob unable to pull a rabit out of the hat,and further probs in the euro zone.Interesting one to watch though.
I am learning to trade harmonic patterns. The harmonic patterns come with colorful names, such as butterfly, crab and bat patterns.
I like the simplest one of all, which goes by a simple name, the AB=CD pattern. In order to train my mind to see and recognize AB=CD patterns, i went searching for AB=CD patterns,. I looked for it everywhere. 10mins charts, 1hr charts, 4hr charts and daily charts. And i think i found the largest AB=CD you will probably ever see.
Here it is. The humongous 3000pips AB=CD pattern from AUDUSD daily chart!!
Guys, what do you think of my latest discovery? Pretty powerful order flow analysis for the AUDUSD, i believe. It may help us to fine-tune our entries to buy & sell aussie.
I present to you my latest findings on the order flow of AUDUSD. Remember that currencies are the lifelines of the global economy. People buy and sell currencies all the time. If i wanted to travel to London to watch the 2012 Olympics, i would change my local currency into British pounds. Which means i would buy GBP and sell SGD. Basic supply and demand.
We individuals do not have the power to move the currencies by 1 pip. So who does? It is the multinational companies such as IBM, Apple, BMW, Samsung and others. Central banks can manipulate their countries’ currencies. But they do it infrequently, although when they do it, it causes huge spikes. Witness BOJ intervening to weaken the YEN in 2011. Look up the daily chart of USDJPY and find the obvious one day spikes. It is the handicraft of Japan’s central bank. Hedge funds can and also shift currencies to a certain extent. But their main aim is speculation and to make profits.
The main factor in currency movement is this. Watch the order flow by the multinational corporations. Every month, whether it is the beginning or the end of each month, they buy and sell currencies. Why? Because they need to settle their monthly accounts. They need to hedge their positions. They need to repatriate their profits. They need to pay their suppliers. They need to collect payment from their customers. Every month, every quarter, every year end, they have to tabulate their profits and losses into their balance sheets. And a host of other reasons.
To illustrate my findings, see the AUDUSD chart. Now locate the places where price makes a major turn. The tops and bottoms are located mostly on the month-end or month-start. It is not a coincidence. It is order-flow.
I hope you understand the importance of order-flow now. Many traders talk on fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA) when looking at the markets. I present to you the third analysis, order-flow analysis (OFA). Learn it well and you will become a more successful trader. Trading is a mind game.
Will the Aussie’s luck turn around at 1.0250? The minor psychological handle is not only near the 38.2% Fib on the daily chart, but it’s also a former support area. Ooh, and Stochastic is in the oversold region too! I can’t wait to see more reversal candles on this one!
