with iffy news again from the eurozone surely we’ve got to see more selloffs for the AUD
The only thing that’s holding me back from going short is - I don’t see any divergence on the 4hr charts.
If I had that I’d be looking for a pull back to parity or better.
Yep! Combine that with weak manufacturing data from China and we just might see this double top form completely and even break down later on!
Oh, so you’re a divergence trader? I’m seeing an overbought stochastic signal, which might be a good enough signal to short but you’re right, a bearish divergence would be a really nice confirmation.
Here’s one for the trend surfers out there! AUD/USD just bounced up from the bottom of a descending channel and it looks like Stochastic is gearing up for an upward move. Will the pair encounter a mid-channel resistance at 1.0400 or will go all the way to 1.0450?
Interesting assessment there. I think the RBA rates decision has had a major impact today when they dropped from 3.5% down to 3.25% and the pair dropped sharply if it had of stayed at 3.5% I would be thinking it would head up. Its hovering around 1.300 will be worth watching to see where it goes next.
Looks like this might have been one of those time when I should have ignored that 4hr divergence. 
Id have to agree with you on this Sparatacus ,also nice downward trend forming on the 4hour (ranging down) but how many times has it all turned to custard.
Lol yeah I know what you mean about the custard bit. I have watched the pair for the last 6-7 hours and its ranges between 1.290 and 1.320. Guess everyone is waiting for some signal or news to get it moving in either direction!
It looks like that falling channel is still holding for AUD/USD! I zoomed out to the 4-hour chart to get a look at the bigger picture. There’s a potential retracement to the top of the falling channel, right around the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci levels. That’s also closely in line with the former support near the 1.0300 handle.
Trade summary part 1 - AUDNZD
Waited for 4 days before the price reaches 1.2500 on Thursday. I went short at 1.2517. However, i felt uneasy about this trade. And i went in and out of this trade quickly. Reason being despite the recent rate cut for AUD, AUDUSD remained strong and trended up well. Looking at the AUDUSD chart, it trended up from Monday to Thursday. Only on Friday it went down after failing to break above 1.0300. With the price action for AUD being strongly bullish for this week, i decided not to fight against the trend. Always leave the trading account intact to trade another trade.
Trade summary part 2 - AUDUSD
One of the reasons for the uneasiness on shorting AUDNZD was this. I attempted to short AUDUSD twice this week. First attempt show me a small loss. Second attempt was a breakeven trade. These 2 trades give me a strong hint that AUDUSD is trending up, and it is not ready to go down. Maybe AUDUSD will be ready to trend down for week 42?
If you want to short the comdolls this week, then look no further than the potential mid-channel resistance on AUD/USD’s 4-hour chart! Not only is there a bearish divergence at the level, but stochastic also looks like it’s about to go down. Is this a sign for me to close my AUD/USD trade?
I assume that the bearish Divergence and mid-channel resistance is spotted on the 1 hour chart instead of 4 Hour Chart.
Anyhow, 4 Hour chart is also seems to show some signal to close any long positions on AUD/USD. See chart
Price is reaching the falling trend line at previous resistance and stochastic is reaching to the over bought territory. I am planning to short the pair on formation of some reversal candlesticks at the falling trend line.
We can be overbought for a long time and claSSical trend on FX doeS not work very well (bankS maniPulation). The daily giveS EMA200 aS target. I exPect 1.0320-1.0350 before reverSal.
There’s this nice bullish divergence materializing on AUD/USD’s 4-hour time frame, hinting at an upcoming Aussie rally. Even better, it lines up with the 50% Fib and rising trend line! If you scroll back a little further, you’d notice that this potential support zone is also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
AUD/USD is forming a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour chart and it looks like it’s about to test the pattern’s resistance. What’s more, stochastic is in the overbought territory! Will the bears come in at the weekly open price (1.0365) or will the bulls dominate for the rest of the week?
Are we seeing a potential continuation of AUD/USD’s rally here? The pair just broke above the top of the rising wedge on the 4-hour chart right after the RBA announced that they’d keep rates on hold for now. At the same time, stochastic is pointing upwards, suggesting that the Aussie has more room to climb. Wait for the candle to close above the wedge if you plan to jump in a long position though!
A new High of 1.0500 may not be far away !!!
Ha! You may be right! After breaking 1.0450, it sure looks headed much higher now! Did you trade this one?
