Happy Corner: Kiwi (NZD) pairs

Hey guys! Did you see this double top formation on NZD/USD’s daily chart? I’m thinking if I should short below the neckline around .8100. There’s a nice bearish divergence, too. But I’m still trying to figure out whether fundamentals line up with techs. Help!

Let me know what you think of this trade setup. Just leave a comment here, don’t be shy!

2 Likes

Hi Happy!

Shorting is a good idea especially with the impact of Christchurch aftershocks on NZD. I’m thinking of waiting for a retracement first, but I don’t know what’s a good level to sell yet. Hopefully someone can point it out to us! Haha.

Good luck with this one!

Justin Pipper

1 Like

Hi guys,
I don’t think selling the pair before breaking the trend line be a good idea plus 0.8100 is a strong support, you need to watch out for fake break out. but if both of them
break it will be very god opportunity.
just to play safer i always wait for BPC (Break out, Pull back, Continuation). it makes me higher win/loss ratio.

Good luck :wink:

Good point, shark! So I guess I’ll wait for .8100 to break then wait for a pullback to that level. That requires a lot of patience (more so because this is the daily time frame we’re looking at), but it could yield better profitability. Come to think of it, breakout-and-retest trades used to work out well for me before.

Thanks for the feedback and I’ll be sure to keep an eye on this pair!

Happy day, guys!

Since I’ve been getting tons of trade ideas from my friends on my @Happy_pip Twitter and Playing with Comdolls Facebook page, I decided to post some of my good trade ideas here.

I’m not restricting the setups to NZD/USD though. As long as it’s Kiwi-related, then I’m all for it! After all, I like to watch NZD crosses too.

I look forward to getting your feedback on these trade ideas of mine. Everyone is welcome to share their opinion so don’t be shy!

Hi happypip

Here is my trade idea on NZD/USD.



Retest of former support now acting as resistance.
Entry: around 0.8100. depends a little if stochastic is in oversold, but around that area of resistance.
SL: Have always hard for stop loss. Say around Fib-75% level + some pips. 81.60
PT: I zoom out to daily chart and put it a little over recent bottom/range 0.7820
This setup gives risk:reward ratio 1:4,67

Must add that I am bias for strong USD also :slight_smile:
What do you ppl think.

2 Likes

Hello and welcome, stencool! You know what? I’m waiting to short right around .8100 too since the pair broke down the neckline of the double top I pointed a couple of days ago (Right here). But some traders advised me to wait for the actual break first then go short on the retest… which is exactly what you plan to do. Good thinking right there!

It seems that the US dollar is gonna be strong in the next few days, especially since risk is off. You got a nice reward-to-risk ratio, and I just might take the same trade as yours. I just gotta figure out where I wanna set my stops and targets though. Maybe around 25 pips above the 61.8% Fib retracement (.8122)? Or above the double top if I’m feeling conservative.

Anyone else looking at this pair? Care to share your thoughts? Just post 'em right here!

1 Like

All right, folks! A lot of us are watching the NZD/USD breakdown and are looking for opportunities to short so I thought I’d post a quick update.

The pair already broke below the neckline of the double top formation but it seems like it’s retracing now. The .8100 area looks like a nice area to short, as pointed out by some of our fellow comdoll enthusiasts earlier.

I put up some Fibs and noticed that .8100 lines up with the 38.2% level. Then the next area of support on the daily time frame is just above the .7800 mark. Now I just have to figure out where to set my stop… [B]HELP![/B]

Hi happypip.
I like your idea and setup here. I think if the Kiwi was able to rally back to above 0.8120 then the break would be invalid. Over the last one and a half month the 0.8110/15 zone was a significant resistance turned support and it broke on Wednesday. 0.8120 is also the 61.8% retracement of the this week’s rout off 0.8215 high. Weekly has a nice stochastic bearish divergence too…

Oh, hey! It’s nice to hear about the NZD from someone who’s actually from New Zealand! Yep, I’ll definitely set my stop above the 61.8% Fib, maybe at .8150 or a tad higher.

Thanks for pointing out that divergence on the weekly chart! I hardly look at that very long-term time frame but that’s a pretty good confirmation, right there!

1 Like

I shorted at .8075 already. That’s the 38.2% Fib on the 1-hour and the previous day high, too. There’s also a bearish divergence. Just aiming for .8000 for a quick day trade, wish me luck!

1 Like

I was Long this pair for quite a while. There is a pretty solid rising trendline on the Daily going back to last Summer. The only real blip on this is March, around the time of the Japan 'quake, but other than that it has been pretty sustained, and has given some nice setups when zeroing down to the lower timeframes for a nice Entry. I find that strong trendlines are often respected both sides of some big event causing a blip, even if at first glance at the chart it appears that the trendline has been broken. So while I like the double top for a Short, I would be wary of the inherent upward bias in the pair when setting TP/managing the trade, in case this continues and any fall turns out to be a retracement rather than a reversal. There is still room to trade, I would just take it into account.

The rising trendline on my chart looks as though it could intersect with Price, the 38.2 Fib, the 100ema and a line of horizontal Support/Resistance somewhere around the 0.7850-0.7900 area (tough to predict so far ahead!!). Not saying that there won’t be a Setup, there might well be, just saying that I have that in the back of my mind when I come to managing a trade - this could turn out to be countertrend, which is fine when played carefully, imho.

The recent Christchurch aftershocks are another variable - my instinct is to sit on my hands for a while as I don’t like placing myself in front of major news.

I have preferred AUD/NZD to trade, recently.

(I’m another Kiwi, btw, or rather a half, I have both UK and NZ passports, although have lived my whole life in Europe so am not claiming anything like peterthepipeater’s credentials. Maybe we are just drawn to the pair?!)

ST

I see what you’re referring to. That long-term rising trend line seems to be holding for now even though New Zealand’s economy faces downside risks from that recent Christchurch quakes. Must be the carry trade, still?

1 Like

It’s the start of a brand new week, my forex friends! Do you have any trade ideas for Kiwi pairs? Post 'em here! Scalp trades and swing setups are both welcome!

1 Like

Not sure that the carry trade alone is enough to keep the pair high in the current climate. There is no real USD strength, at the moment - their were great Short trades to be had on EUR/USD, recently, but that was because the Euro is so weakened by having relaxed the entry criteria for some of the weaker members (eg. Greece) than because of any inherent USD strength. The recent quake has not really created any new NZ problems that the original quake had not already given them, so perhaps the impact of the quakes as a whole has already been absorbed by the market? Anyway, there could be many reasons, I will just only trade a technical setup (as am not Short this pair as of now), and will not trade against a major fundamental event, so I am sitting on my hands for now, seeing which bias wins.

Hmm, I see. It looks like it’s consolidating tightly for now, no clear direction just yet. I’ll be sitting on my hands for this pair, too. Thanks for your insight, it was really helpful in avoiding another losing trade. See ya around!

Yes, and on the Daily chart we made a higher high on 9th June, then a lower low on 16th June. Even when I don’t trade directly off the Daily, I let my overall trading direction be informed by it. So I am certainly waiting.

Hey all!

Big Pippin told me there’s a symmetrical triangle forming on NZD/USD’s 4-hour chart and I’d like to know what you think of this setup:

[B]Do you think we’ll see an upside breakout or will this just fall to the bottom? [/B]

Stochastic is almost in the overbought area, but risk seems to be on lately. I’m torn!

Morning happyhip. Looking at the Daily, we are in an overall uptrend on this pair, and Price low-tested both yesterday and Monday, seemingly finding Support a whisker above the significant 0.8000 level. This area is also currently supported by the 50ema. Yesterday’s low test was also off the 50 fib level. So all of this would support an upside breakout.

However, 0.8120 or so has been a major Resistance level going back a few years, with Price really not wanting to move above 0.8200 - last month was the first time that it has managed it, and it was sent back south again pretty quickly. Given that Price is currently around 0.8150, I would not feel confident going Long at the current level.

When all-time highs and lows are reached for a Pair, there is often a good trade to be had trading a high- or low-test out of this new level.

So my instinct would be either to wait for a retracement and some clear reasons to go Long from a lower level, or wait for a test of a new high and look to take a Short up there. For me, at the moment, the picture is a bit mixed.

I realize that this might well be redundant, as your Triangle has presumably been broken by the latest bar, so you are either in the trade already or have junked the setup, but thought I would share my thoughts, for what it is worth!!

ST

Oh wow, it did break out already! I didn’t take any trades on this pair since I couldn’t really pick a clear direction. Decided to watch the USD/CAD and AUD/USD channels instead :slight_smile: