I was Long this pair for quite a while. There is a pretty solid rising trendline on the Daily going back to last Summer. The only real blip on this is March, around the time of the Japan 'quake, but other than that it has been pretty sustained, and has given some nice setups when zeroing down to the lower timeframes for a nice Entry. I find that strong trendlines are often respected both sides of some big event causing a blip, even if at first glance at the chart it appears that the trendline has been broken. So while I like the double top for a Short, I would be wary of the inherent upward bias in the pair when setting TP/managing the trade, in case this continues and any fall turns out to be a retracement rather than a reversal. There is still room to trade, I would just take it into account.
The rising trendline on my chart looks as though it could intersect with Price, the 38.2 Fib, the 100ema and a line of horizontal Support/Resistance somewhere around the 0.7850-0.7900 area (tough to predict so far ahead!!). Not saying that there won’t be a Setup, there might well be, just saying that I have that in the back of my mind when I come to managing a trade - this could turn out to be countertrend, which is fine when played carefully, imho.
The recent Christchurch aftershocks are another variable - my instinct is to sit on my hands for a while as I don’t like placing myself in front of major news.
I have preferred AUD/NZD to trade, recently.
(I’m another Kiwi, btw, or rather a half, I have both UK and NZ passports, although have lived my whole life in Europe so am not claiming anything like peterthepipeater’s credentials. Maybe we are just drawn to the pair?!)
ST
