Yes, exactly that - I find that the really big news announcements/events don’t always have the effect that one expects, despite analysis (the Yen gave both Short and Long pips following the earthquake, for instance) so I just stay out. I see this as a probability game, I like high probability trades, so if there are too many variables that I don’t feel confident predicting, I just stay away. I have back-tested this, and while I could make some heroic pips on some days, I would just get stopped out on others, and even the ratio between those two options is not something I feel I can predict with sufficient accuracy.
I see this as a long-term career, I judge each month and year as a whole. I make a double-figure percentage return each month trading as it is, my account is growing as well as providing an income - so I just avoid some of the bigger variables, why mess with what works?
I realize that a lot of people like to trade NFP, and they are happy that they make it work, but I prefer to avoid it. It’s only one Friday a month, and I am generally in a happy place by cop Thursday, anyway, as there is generally something working - EUR/USD, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY have been my trading focus this week, sorry for my Comdoll disloyalty!
So this Friday I am taking my wife and youngest (pre-school) son out to lunch, then will reenter the fray on Monday. Beats working for a living!!