What’s up everyone?
I’m thinking of buying USD/CAD at a retracement, probably at the .9700-.9750 area. What do you guys think?
That level lines up with a support turned resistance turned support - well, basically an area of interest - so I’m thinking it could hold again. Plus, stochastic is almost in the oversold area already.
Gotta factor in what the Fed said about their interest rates though… Thoughts, anyone?
Anyone in a long USD/CAD trade with me? I bought at .9800, at the bottom of this week’s average range and near the previous week low.
Do you think I should hold on until it breaks above the descending triangle or do you think that’s not gonna happen? I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Personally, I never take a Short from an ascending triangle, or Long from a descending triangle. I know that Babypips school says that is can work, but then, anything can work at some point. It is a lower-probability Entry, so is not on my list. Add to that a very mixed picture on USD/CAD at the moment - that Daily chart is ugly, I see nothing there - and I would say that this is too close to a 50-50 trade for my approach.
Sorry, am conscious that I am rapidly becoming the Comdoll misery!! This is a volatile month, I think highly selective is the way to play it.
ST
Haha, don’t sweat it, SimonTemplar! Your insights are always valued here 
In fact, I really like looking at all possible angles of the trade so I can be aware of the things I should watch out for.
But yeah, it’s been slim pickin’s for the comdolls lately since all pairs seem to be in consolidation. I just decided to go with USD/CAD since it showed signs of a possible breakout and because Canada has a couple of reports due in a few.
Thanks for pointing out the extra volatility this month though, I should’ve considered that before I set such an ambitious profit target. I’ll be out of this trade as soon as I see signs of dollar weakness or Loonie strength.
Good luck on your trades!
Autumn is generally good for the comdolls, only a couple of weeks to go until September and we get more predictable moves, so happy days ahead I am sure.
Very glad that the USD/CAD trade has moved well for you, nice to have 0.6% locked in, nice work!
ST
And just like that it’s already September! Comdolls seem to be consolidating pre-NFP but I really do hope we see more predictable moves like you said
Any trade ideas for this week?
I lost 1% on USD/CAD last week (curses!!), I went long off the successive inside bar low tests on the Daily chart (from memory there were, like, three or four in a row!), thought that the fundamentals were lining up nicely, it triggered me in… and stopped me out. Shucks. One of those things, but I have not seen anything this week and am now out of the market until Monday, as this lunchtime/afternoon (GMT - 11:40am now) are pretty newsy and it is, as you say, NFP tomorrow. I closed my final trade of the week, a EUR/CAD Short, about an hour ago, which has given a nice start to September’s figures.
Hopefully next week will give us some clarity, USD/CAD has been a little unpredictable for my liking, recently.
ST
Too bad on your USD/CAD trade! Yep, it’s a little confusing with that pair lately. I thought it already made a new range but it busted right back above resistance. Anyway, good to know your EUR/CAD short went well. Best of luck to all of us this week! It’s been a wild start…
Thank you. Yes, I have only been end of day, have not fancied intraday USD/CAD. Do you know what caused the massive spikes at 0900 today (40 minutes ago)? I was just placing a short order on CHF/JPY, was too slow (my wife is away so I was doing the kids’ breakfast at the same time!) and the floor dropped out of it before I got the order on. Would be 4% or more banked by now, sigh…!
Awww, that’s cute, I could almost imagine what happened in your household then. There’ll be other 4% opportunities for you, I’m sure. Kids come first
Lol, sure you are right, but as Mrs ST is now in New York all of this week with her corporate executive hat on my trading flexibility overall has been somewhat contricted, recently! Has actually been a valuable reminder that a clear head and a clear diary are a massive help when it comes to trading, something that it is easy to forget once it starts to become second nature. Everything in Forex is a learning opportunity, I guess, just some are more expensive than others lol.
Anyway, back to business - I am currently in a Short USD/CAD trade, simple rejection of a horizontal level (and, in this case, parity) off the Daily chart. I entered off the high test on 12th September, yesterday was a good day for it, but overnight (it’s 09:41 Thursday here) Price has moved against me somewhat, eating into the profit. I will leave the Stop where it is, as this is a more volatile pair than some, but thought you might be interested in it as a trade, given the title of this thread, and given your parity rejection trade idea on the AUD thread. It’s not giving me that warm, fuzzy feeling this morning so far, though…!
ST
I was actually thinking of shorting USD/CAD at parity last week but I missed that, which is why I’m looking at AUD/USD instead. Looks like .9850 is a stubborn level and USD/CAD can’t make a strong break below it just yet!
Fortunately the 0.9850 level broke, the trade worked out in the end. I see you mentioned this one in your blog as a good opportunity from last week. Well there is good Support at around the 0.9400-0.9450 level, we are currently in a bit of a no man’s land. But if we test that low, or move back up towards parity, I will be looking to go long/short, whichever happens first. Looking at the Daily, this pair has basically been range-bound all year, so I am simply looking for entries at the extremities of the range. I reckon we will get another shot at that ‘short from parity’ trade later this month…
(Of course, now that I have said it out loud it won’t happen lol!)
ST
You jinxed it! Hahaha, kidding. I’m waiting for another short at parity too (same with AUD/USD). Oh no, I double-jinxed it!
May the pips be with us this week!
There has been a level of soft S&R on this pair at around the 0.9940 level, but assuming that that breaks I think we’re still looking good for another go at shorting from parity. Postive mental waves is all we need…! I’m currently long EUR/CAD, so could do with today to finish that one before getting into USD/CAD, anyway 
AUD/USD? I’m certainly looking to trade a rejection of parity. Whether long or short I’ll decide once we get there…
How did your EUR/CAD trade go? Looks like it made strong rallies these past few days. Did you take profits yet or are you still keeping it open?
We have builders in (again!) so I am not at the screen as regularly as I often am, so I set a fixed TP on EUR/CAD, at 1.3758, which was hit last night, which I am pleased about, obviously - 288 pips banked, against a 90 pip risk. Hindsight might suggest that I got out a little early, but then being more ambitious can often mean that TP’s are missed, so I think that it evens out over the year. We all have our own risk appetite, mine is pretty low compared with many on here, I risk just 1% per trade and tend towards more conservative TP’s. It was just over a 3:1 trade as it was, which I am very happy with in the current climate.
Am currently not in anything - don’t like the look of the charts this morning at all!
ST
Congrats on your 288 pips, ST! Missing out on a few TPs is okay, I guess, if you’re aiming for a big risk ratio. As you said, it evens out over the year. Hopefully you make more good trades next week. 
Hi happypip,
Just wanted to say nice work on your USD/CAD Hourly Long, just saw it on your blog. Would have joined you in that one had I had my wits about me but just kind of missed it in the noise. Nice setup and nicely played!! (Even if you did rush your Entry a little and bend your own criteria, but we won’t mention that lol…!!) Anyway, quality trade, well done and lovely end to September!!
ST
Thanks ST! Yep, I feel a bit guilty about rushing my entry. I should’ve added when it dipped to my original long entry though. Oh well, good thing it turned out profitable.
How was your September?
