Multiple Time Frame Analysis
-Focus more time on Daily, and Weekly
Entering on 30 min and 1 hour time frame.
-A better entrance can be given on 15min or 5 min
Do not focus or trade based on minuscule news.
-Trading news has high volatility.
Report key support and resistance levels.
-Levels must be noted to see levels of retracement to see if market respect any levels.
Stick to simple harmonic and Wave patterns.
-Do not overcomplicated waves. Keep simplistic as possible.
Protect your Profits
-Set stop loss in profit region to protect assets.
Folks, it doesnt matter how many pips you make. It is how much you can keep.
Don’t worry about how many pips to make. Question your theory and analysis. Question your ability to make the right call.
I will be posting all various types of harmonic patterns.
Here is the USD/CHF. Initially, I was working on the 4 hour time frame because it gave me a nice pattern formation. By taking a step back, we can see a pennant forming with this months high testing the resistance of the pennant. I didnt initially think that it will break the pennant but it shot back down, giving us a workable pattern. What is confusing for me is the testing of two support lines. One support line was of the pennats and the other was a weekly support line.
As time went one, it seemed to test the potential reversal zones. However, over the weekend, for this pattern to be valid, the pattern must respect the PRZ. It did not in this situation because a very strong bearish bar flew right through it. According to scott carney, this price bar invalidates the pattern -meaning we have to start new with this pair.
After many failed patterns on this pair, this seems to hold the most. This bat formation will varied within next two weeks for conformation. IT has not yet reached point D. There have been numerous talks in the forums about how AUS/USD will drop. Some said it was going to drop earlier this month but I believe it is beginning now. Seems to hold a strong downward trend at the moment. what worries me most about this pair is that I have a huge prize reversal zone. I would expect retracement to occur around 1.36~1.35 because of the aggregation of the two zones. The outlier is the AB=CD in which some ignore.
When it reaches around 1.36 ~1.35, I will wait and see if the pattern do follow a reversal. It should because it would confirm with the weekly support and resistant lines-meaning it would conform with the trend. Let’s wait and see.
I see a Non-perfect Mr. Gartley forming. A daily and weekly charts shows a strong upward trend as it briefly touches the SMA. Overall, I think it will test the resistance level established mid September after the pattern has completed. In shorter time frames or larger time frames, the market is reacting within the pennant/triangle. However, with this Non-perfect Mr. Gartley pattern, approaching point D will test the pennants support line. I believe that since we are still in an upward trend it will only touch or casually test the area and shoot back up to continue the trend. If you look at the hourly time frame with your RSI, you can definitely see a hidden divergence happening (higher lows and lower highs) confirming a upward trend.
All potential reversal values within the zone seem to aggregate within the same area which helps make me believe that when price levels hit this area, reversal will continue-confirming the bullish trend.
But as of now, the market just opened being very bullish which scares me that it might make this pattern invalid…again
Market opened really strong today… therefore, invalidating my pattern. However, another forms! Crabby forms!
The pair broke through the pennant and continues the upward trend. I will look between 1.304 and 1.307 for potential reversal moves~ we will see if this sucker will follow any of the pattern rules. Should’ve confirmed the upward trend when looking at lower time frames with the SMA.
I have a feeling it might be over bought as it tempts to reach another high this month. Most rsi and Stoch show overbought. So, I will watch and see what will happen tomorrow.
AS stated earlier in another thread:
I have speculations of this pair to fall sometime soon? Head and shoulders forming within a pennant that have tested (once) the resistance. Along with my previous pattern alignment, it shows that if it drops it would continue in the downward trend? Or would this “new upward trend” be the new trend?
For long term, yes, it would be wise to go long. I was referring for short term. I took a second look on the pair and it shows testing of the resistance two times within this week. Also, note that this pair has reached a 4 month high! I was analyzing the graph again and see that is bouncing between the pennant. I expect that the pair might fall downwards to around 82.10~82.00. However, that is a speculation. If it breaks this level, it will break the pennant and support line which is believe will continue with the down trend. However, it can just as easily touch the support/pennant and shoot upwards (just like it did on 27 Nov)!
So in the end, I am going to be extra careful when shorting/buying this pair.
Pennant formation on time frames of 1H, 4H, daily. I will be watching for a breakout and then entering. What is noticeable about this pattern formation is the fact that it took less then half the time for the second half to complete. I initally shorted the pair when the pair attempted to touch the highest potential reversal zone. Followed by a down trend, I thought for sure that it would go down and touch 38.2 IPO, bounce, fall and hit 68.1 IPO, bounce, and fall again. However, during this time, it retraced at 23.6… Which is suppose to be my target profit taking level (safety net). I curious as to whether or not it will test the final PZL.
I will not be fighting the trend on this one. Why? Because by taking a step back, we can see a strong upwards trend. I believe that it will only fall for a certain amount before it continues to rocket up. Unless, it is a forsure the new “downtrend.”
My errors on this pair: on nov 30th, I was too hesitant about the completion of this pattern. I initially thought that the pattern would fall after testing the PRZ levels. however, it did not test all levels. As of now it is cruising within the PRZ which makes me curious as to whether or not it is valid. I intend for it to fall as it seems to stand outside of the pennant. Or we can say the angular daily resistant level. By testing this level, it can confirm a new trend as it is approaching the end of the pennant. However, on 10.22, it tested the resistant line and shot down. Would it do the same here? I hope so…
I only say hope so because it would follow the pattern rules. Take a step out again and we can clearly see a strong upward trend. I will trade this pair carefully as I know that after Point D it should drop but not as heavily to go against the trend. If i were to go long on thsi position, i would enter when I know that this pair has fallen to atleast 0.808 or even 0.804- testing both profit taking levels.
Price only tested the highest potential reversal zone. I Dont think it will test any other levels due to the fact that the market has risen to a higher high this month. I was able to see a perfect gartley on a smaller time frame. I will again… try to trade this pair when it confirms conformation.
On the previous chart of 30 min time frame, the pattern worked perfectly! However, I did not place my orders in time or it was negligence. ON a chart outside of it, I see batman. Just in time! Point D is testing at the moment. Testing all three levels. Since we saw such an exponential buy on this pair, I wonder if this point will be the exhaustion point for buyers. Would we short? I would be careful! Why? Because by taking a step back, we would be fighting the trend! So I placed my orders accordingly to assure that it is a downfall. Good luck trading!
USD/JPY- This pair is where I exactly want it. It is falling down. It seemed to test the major resistance line and now continuing the downfall! I dont think this down trend will last anytime soon. I am expecting retracement right around 81.735. If this price levels breaks, it breaks the conformational pattern. THis pattern, now being invalid, will fall. Hence, downward trend.
Eur/Jpy-- This pair is giving me trouble. Looking at todays chart, you can see it is only hoovering on top of the 38.2 IPO. Entirely frustrating! But I would also be fight the trend if it goes down. So what will it be?
Eur/Gpb- I honestly lost a lot of demo money on this. I initially thought the pair would short some time soon around 29/11/2012 but ti didnt. If it successfully test and retraces the third level, it would be a pattern!
Eur/USD- no words for this pair. I want to slap this pair.
Short time frame. I have a 20 min chart that expects a short bear soon. It doesnt have to fall much to hit the retracement and continue the upward trend. We can obviously see red bull on this chart so hopefully we can see some harmonic action going on.
Expecting a bullish market probably till monday until pattern can fully complete. I just dont want it to be incomplete before the weekend because opening and closing prices can invalidate this pattern. From 1.24-1.25, I am expecting atleast 3 to 4 retracements. I will place at several levels expecting still a bullish market with restricted stops hoping to earn a few bucks. This pattern is aggregating at the end of the pennant hopefully helping dictate the actual trend.
Previous pattern that I drew did not or lets just say became invalidated. New pattern for now. I hate having to redo this pattern after many clicks on the program…
hi elephant, its nice to see, some one is interested in pattern trading in this forum. i posted some pattern in my trading journal as well. i usually draw patterns on higher time frames. if u look at the other factor apart from patterns, they can be very successful.
Hey Nisar!
It is nice to see someone else interested in pattern trading! I will take a look at your trading journal also soon when the market begins to open. I also draw patterns on higher time frames. however, generally on the Eur/Usd, they havent been agreeing with any of the retracement levels. I have been focusing on lower time levels (maybe 30min to an hour).
Haven’t posted in a while. I saw this figure while looking over the A/USD. I have predictions of it still falling. When I was looking at the market, it was currently at 1.04046 and over night, it fell another 50 pips. I knew I should have entered. If you compare the AU and the US treasuries, AUS is making a higher high while the US is making a lower low. THis clear divergence can suggest many things. The higher yield suggest that the Australian dollar can be stronger than the US. OPen interest also shows a steady flat line. Entering data for the COT, we see that commercial traders are entering shorter shorts meaning they are going long. Would this suggest a stronger dollar? Also, implying a bearish market for the a/USd?
Expecting a rally back up after reaching 1.60471. Price retracing back to a intraday support line. Hopefully, will see some supoort. If not, we are expecting some struggle on major support levels.
UI: -, ON support/ Off Resistance, -, -
BP: +, On Support/On resistance , -, +
EU:+, Off Support/ Off resistance , -, +/-
Overall: +
