Hello everybody, so i am in the wonderful world of backtesting and i have a concern. I have started my account with 500.00 and 20 pips s/l and 70 pips profit stop. So while backtesting since may 2016 to october 2016 I profit $308.30. my current trading plan is to trade when my STO gets off the extreme and when both moving averages from the ichimoku kinko hyo are parallel; i am also using the moving averages lagging and leading as resistance and support points… My concern is how can i differentiate from pure luck to that i am actually learning vs i am applying my trading system successfully?
The answer is forward-testing. In other words, demo trade in it real time to see if it actually works.
For what its worth, though, you are reporting a 60% gain over the course of six months. That’s very good, but not so good that I’m immediately suspicious.
well. Because LUCK DOESN’T EXIST, Pure or Diluted.
is comes down to this…
if you do something right and it has a positive effect
and… i should also say
if you do something wrong and it has a positive effect THIS IS DEEMED TO BE “SOMETHING RIGHT”
so… if you do something right
the question is…
DO YOU KNOW WHY IT HAPPENED
if yes - You learned from it
if No - You didn’t
IT’S THAT SIMPLE
beyond this…
When you do something and it results in a positive outcome and YOU CAN’T EXPLAIN IT or Why it happened. … YOU CALL IT “LUCK”
it’s not luck
THERE IS A REASON FOR IT ALL, You just need to find it
simple as that
so how do you differentiate between Luck and Your own actions
well. IT’S ALL YOUR OWN ACTIONS
Luck doesn’t exist
but, Sometimes you won’t realize it’s your actions
other times you will
DOES THAT MAKE SENSE ?
I am interested to know about your fixed SL and TP position! Is your strategy always offer you 20 pips SL and 70 pips TP? Or anything else?
Yeah pretty much… That is it. Tight s/l and letting the profit takes its course sometimes i get nervious and want to close the trade when the stop lost is almost trigger so i am still in the process of learning… I think i did that mistake like 2 times just to find out the the price reverses and blew over my profit lvls…
Well; if your strategy supports it then, no problem! But according to me, we need to set our SL and TP in order to the market context!