The Kelly Criterion only is applicable if you have a positive edge. Based on the numbers you provided, you do not have an edge. However, you should not apply Kelly unless you at least have a few hundred trades under your belt as it is very dependent on the accuracy of your win/loss ratio and winning probability.

Nonetheless, I will assist you in the calculating this figure.

Kelly % = W - [(1-W)/R]

Kelly % = .44 - [(1-.44)/1.19]

Kelly % = .44 - [.56/1.19]

Kelly % = .44 - .47

Kelly % = (-.03)

As this is a negative number, you can’t apply it to your trading strategy.

I very well may have divided the wrong number there.

Also, note that this is under the assumption you are taking one trade at a time. You will have to take an even smaller size if you have simultaneous wagers going on at once.

[QUOTE=“mastergunner99;637619”]I very well may have divided the wrong number there. Also, note that this is under the assumption you are taking one trade at a time. You will have to take an even smaller size if you have simultaneous wagers going on at once. [/QUOTE]

So if i calculate a .06 Kelly %, then i should use it as the max for all trades, as in .06/X # of trades?

It depends on how you are placing the trades. I am a swing trader, so at times I may have 20 positions open at once, however, that figure varies and I can’t exactly assume how many trades I will be in.

Kelly Betters generally will bet a fraction of the Kelly Percentage, such as 1/4, 1/6/ or 1/10 Kelly.

The calculation can get pretty intricate when you get into a scenario where you are placing both simulantaneous and consecutive wagers.

I’d think to use it as a guideline for individual trades, then cap the risk to be no more than 25% to 30% across all active trades. … Pretty conservative.