There is a phrase in England (might be international, not sure): ‘misery loves company’.
But of course that is irrelevant, we are all going to make lots of pips and be very happy!
Yes, I know it very well…but I believe we will indeed make lots of pips on this one. Cheers!
When we zoom out of the GBP/USD H1 chart we see that this level that we are at, 1.6250, is a critical level that price has been failing to close solidly above since November 2010. Based on where we are currently at, I am anticipating a very strong POP/MOVE. Let’s see where she heads.
It is quiet possible that we are fixing to take out the lows of the current month and the previous two months, beyond there 1.5600-1.5650. Let’s see what happens at this level, 1.6250.
WOW, i wake up this morning and im in quite a few negative pips. so much so that if i want to stay in this I may have to open my stop up a bit more. IN the papers they are saying that yesterdays suprise inflation drop in the UK was completely the opposite of what people were expecting (it went from ~4.5% down to 4.0%, but people had rumoured it to go up to 4.6-4.7%). that could be why there was a drop to 1.6250 and lower. now because things are looking better than people expected could it make this trade void? I suppose with the US budget and bullish market of the last few days could see the greenback weaken?
I’m shaking my magic 8-ball. <-- lol
Good Morning TWHM, just woke up and am looking at the market. I am a technical trader and to be honest I don’t pay much attention to the news. I am still short and now looking at where to lock in profits. 1.6250 is a major decision zone, so if it moves as I expect it will be a great trade. At the same time it is important to protect profits and or reduce losses as we could have finally have buying off this level.
well that trade went horribly horribly wrong. market has moved 100 pips against where i was and i caught a huge chunk of that.
Is that the Cable trade? Yes, unfortunate spike, took out one of my positions, too. I never have quite the strike rate with countertrend trades, but it was still a good setup. Cable has gone a bit rangy, but not yet for long enough to give much confidence in it.
Anyway, you wouldn’t enjoy the winners as much if there weren’t the odd loser!
yes that was the GU trade i was so happy about yesterday. not sure what the next move is now, seeing as how it seems to do the opposite of what seems to be the most obvious move.
ST i see you are in the UK, what time do you normally start trading?
I have been a bit erratic recently; small children, other business taking time away from me, my wife’s work necessitating time away, renovating our house, all sorts going on all at once, basically, but my regular model, which I will return to for May when most of those issues ought to be more stable, is: (and it sounds a bit horrific, I know, but I find that it is worth it): Tuesday - Thursday I trade from 0630-0830, will do an hour before that if I have the energy (for instance there was a lovely setup on the USD/CHF 5 minute chart this morning a little after 5am - I missed it, but would have paid 2% before 0630, which is not a bad start to the day…). Then I do the school run, and give it another two or three hours into lunchtime (if I place two or three trades in the first 20 minutes then I manage it by orders so get to have the rest of the morning off). I have lunch with my wife and youngest son (who is not yet at school), then if I am free I will have a quick (30 minute) look at the US open to see if anything is setting up, but that is strictly optional for me. Then I am back at the computer that evening, say around 2200 (but it can be midnight or whatever, it is flexible), when it is clear how the Daily bars are likely to close, scanning for end of day setups. For the intraday stuff I am mostly 5 minute chart and Hourly chart, for end of day I am 99% the Daily but will look at the Weekly - not many setups but when they are good they are very, very good.
That sounds like it takes over my day, but then I have the advantage that I gave up a very busy career for this, so it is still far fewer hours than I was doing previously. Also, that routine is only three days a week - Tuesday to Thursday. On Monday I don’t bother with the opening session, as the week is still framing itself, so I start at 10am. On Fridays, I stop at lunchtime, so there is no US open and no end of day. I have a coach, so my coaching takes place outside of those times, plus any study or reading, but the actual trading is really not many hours a week, and the return is much higher than my previous career. Plus if ever I need to I can just drop sessions, obviously, as I only trade my own money and am, therefore, my own boss. As long as my wife agrees…!
As I basically only trade pairs that are either clearly trending or clearly ranging, I will rule out some pairs early in the week and only focus on the remainder, so scanning for setups is a pretty quick process. For instance, this week I am mostly EUR/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD. USD/CAD has been great, recently, but is hitting resistance at a strong low, so am staying out right now. Mid-February I made nice pips trading the ranges on CAD/CHF and GBP/CHF - basically I focus on two or three pairs each week, but those pairs vary.
Anyway, sorry to ramble, and put the personal stuff in - I just thought that it would help explain my choices of when to trade, if you saw the reasons why. I love Forex as I get to be at home, get involved with the kids (I do primary childcare each afternoon for my youngest, and do all the school runs for the others) yet make a proper income. I used to work most weekends for a lot less control and a lot less money… Forex is tough at first, but once you crack it you really see why you bothered.
So while my model might not work for you, there will be a model that does. For instance, I could make a good living just trading end of day (although that has been tough recently), equally I could drop the end of day and still do well just on the intraday. I am working it quite hard to build up a nest egg while I have the time and energy for it. The sooner you earn it, the longer you get to enjoy it, after all…!!
I hope that that answers the question, please weed out the bits that ramble off the point.
Don’t let a loss - or, indeed, several losses - put you off or make your shoulders drop too far. I did that early on, then I finally realized that if the strategy is sound then you just need to stay mechanical and keep trading it. Over time it will come good. I know that it is easily said, but really, it is true. I risk 1% per trade every time, no matter how good the setup looks, I am happy to take 1:1 but will go for more if it is available, and over time it just works. I lost the same Cable trade that you did overnight, I am still very optimistic about my trading week, and so should you be. The best trader in the world will still take losses, after all.
ST
And apologies for the extreme length - it did not look that long in the little text window!
GM All! Just getting out of bed…verrrry late start this morning. Well the TWHM, I would say the trade went horribly wrong if one had no stop in or risked over his/her head, since nothing is 100% with FOREX and a trader trades the market the way he/she sees it. I locked in on profits on all my shorts, so I only suffered less profits. Good trade to you! The beauty about this one is that there was ample time to protect, pull out etc, based on the support built at 1.6250. I am not sure that the view has completely changed, based on the PA. Lets see where she goes. Watching 1.6327 H1 PVSH resistance.
ST thats a great post. (apart from the early mornings) that sounds like a very picturesque lifestyle! something to aspire to.
When i said horribly wrong, i mean that i lost a lot of pips, but as i am still using very small lots (sub- 5000 units) the £££ loss was not particularly significant.
I’ve had an alright morning though. had a stab at an short term strategy (couple of hours per trade) on the 15 mins and have already had a win, and im sitting on some +pips to see where it goes from there.
GM TWHM, I somehow thought that you had exited the trade…Nevertheless, glad to hear you are back on track.
I know you dont do fundamentals, but there is a US news release at 1:30 GMT which could knock the trend. im going to watch it closely for now and see which way it goes.
Thanks TWHM, I am seeing a couple of counter short setups as well so watching closely too.
Thank you. We all want different things from life, but it works for me. And there is a sports car in the garage, so it is not all kids and domesticity…!! Glad that you have retained your optimism. It took ages, but I now don’t think in terms of account size, I just think percentages. When I started it was 50p a pip, which equated to Stops of 1%, now it is more than that per pip, but still 1%. So my psychology is always the same. It’s like the Arnold Schwarzeneggar approach to trading - you have to become a machine in your relentless approach to mechanically trading your strategy, in my opinion.
hello all,
Just about to call it a day. made some good +pips on the reaction to that news. still not as many as i lost yesterday, but meh, a win is a win is a win.
Great going TWHM! Still awaiting a decent setup. Now watching H4 short setup as previous H1 did not trigger.
Morning all. not going to be trading much. maybe a quick on this morning. There is a US news release at 13:30 GMT. seems like quite an important one but its friday. I am starting to get the hang of my SMA based strategy now. I think i will spend my time back testing it further to really build my confidence in it.
Have a good weekend if i dont come back today!