I’ve made some good pips this week, but nowhere near that much!
I was short on USD/JPY on a sub account from 83.49. took profits last night at 80.50. not a bad trade but it was such a small lot
Currently up about 150 pips this morning, not including the trade above, thanks to a breakout strategy and some swing trades. Here is a shocker though. I got caught out by OANDA and their magic spreads again. 25pips spread on the GU because it was a news candle. I had a position that was going + so I went to add to it and got stung by -25pips.
Tricky double PVSL BUY/support area at 1.4825 on H4 EUR/USD. Watching this one. Long entry triggered on H4 1.6480 PVSL on GBP/USD. Long off 118.30 on EUR/JPY, stop at breakeven.
150pips is great news for me, but usually my weekly haul is ~50-60
Made a cheeky 15 pips just now off the USD/JPY pull back. got in at ~79.66 and got out at ~79.81. it was a counter trend trade which I generally would not do, but such a rapid drop is bound to have a pull back of some sort. Just such a shame I closed my short position from 83.50 last night. Oh well, dont be greedy eh?
I’m looking at the USD/JPY and my hands are getting itchy. Thats a hell of a long down trend and a very important level has been breached. could this be the time to go very very very long? Im thinking a sub account may be needed- go long and forget about it for a week or two. anyone got any objections?
You’ll also probably want to consider that it’s NFPs tomorrow before going long in U/J. Could throw all sorts of spanners in the works. Would probably be worthwhile waiting for some sort of confirmation that a long is on the cards before diving in. Big players are short this pair right now and comments from the BOJ today suggest that they’re not going to defend 80 so long as the decline isn’t too disorderly.
There was a lot of buying ($4bn+) in U/J last week by some parties but the price still dropped fairly heavily which suggests that there was some serious institutional money being thrown in the short direction. So while the price is looking attractive I’d probably stay out for now and watch how things unfold. Also, US Bond yields are falling quite a bit which typically exerts a downward pressure on this pair. Having said all that the Japanese are about to embark on some serious money printing soon enough which you would think would have a weakening effect on the yen. Timing the trade is the hard part I guess
I’ll post some charts when I get back home from work. Basically just horizontal lines at places of previous support and resistance where price has vibrated quite strongly historically - that’s the daily and 4H charts - the Alternative Technical Templates thread was very helpful for me here. I don’t have access to the session / daily / weekly / monthly previous highs / lows on my charting package in work though I sometimes jot them down in excel the night before from my MT4 account and work off those numbers.
After that I use 5 min charts for entry and sometimes use volume on those charts as a bit of a visual trigger to help me confirm what I’m seeing with the price action. Though I’m using volume less and less these days as finding that I don’t really need it. Once I see price reacting to a zone in a way that I like I’ll enter the trade. I’m pretty risk averse so tend to enter in fairly small (~0.5%) and aim to gain about 4% per week.
Wise words. Even so, call it inexperience, I’m going for it. new sub account, teeny-weeny lot size, just to say I did. Who knows, it could be the trade of a lifetime. Although you have convinced me to wait until tomorrow.
Cool. I look forward to seeing that, that is, you posting charts. My objective in sharing this method is for mutual benefit and less to say what I think/know, but to show what I see, so others can benefit and if/when they do the same, I also benefit.
[B]Welcoming all posting here to justify your analysis/position, backing with charts.[/B]
Ooops. One more thing. Kindly NO deviations from the method being used here. Otherwise, I believe there may be another thread on this site welcoming you.
Nice PVSH resistance Re-Entry on shorts at 1.6450. Pound is looking for 1.6300-1.6250 this week, after which I am anticipating a retrace to this 1.6450 level and continuation is likely to 1.6000. Longer term shorting can take us all the way to 1.5900 and below that 1.5600 to 1.5560.
This is what I was looking at on E/U. We’ve got a retrace all the way past the 89% as well as coming up on previous week low at 1.4492. If we get the right sort of pivot price action around here I would think about taking a tentative punt at a long up towards probable 1.4650 resistance though upcoming NFPs might put me off for now I think. The massive beatdown today would definitely give me pause too. I guess we’ll see if E/U is now in sell the rallies mode for the next while!
