Hi Bank,
Hope you are enjoying the weekend as well. You are right, there were quite a bit of “elegant” set-ups this week. Is this normal in a typical week?
Cant wait to see what next week brings, will start reviewing charts tomorrow.
-swallowtail
Hi swallowtail,
Indeed I am. Usually you will get these setups once we don’t have a week where the market is trapped in a tight range. Will see how next week goes. Here looking at the charts myself. Hope to post some setups tomorrow night.
Hi Everyone,
Looking at the charts for the week ahead I see the following setups and watch out areas:
[B]AUD/JPY[/B]
Price closed below an H4 PVSH support, now resistance at 74.90-75.00, creating a nice area for sellers.
http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/1896/36068440.jpg
Although I am eyeing this short setup, there is a counter setup on a PVSL which price is just above at 74.62. This could trigger strong buying into 77.67 to 78.28, T4 and T5 of the last triggered swing.
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/7922/aj2f.jpg
[B]EUR/JPY[/B]
PVSH short setup at 102.98 which we are currently trading below.
http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/2095/92730008.jpg
Counter short setup to watch on this pair:
http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/42/ey2o.jpg
Hi Bank, I saw those setups as well and noticed the counter set-up on AUDJPY. Not sure what to do in that case so i’ll sit watch it to see how it plays out. Also saw 2 other setups:
USDCAD: Possible buy at PVSL @ 1.0359
AUDUSD: Possible sell at PVSH @ 0.9776
Are these correct?
Actually, not so sure about AUDUSD, PVSL is a level to watch out for.
Hi swallowtail,
That’s exactly what I do in cases like this…sit and wait. I may pre-empt the move if similar pairs are pointing toward a particular direction, otherwise its a waiting game. Looking like they all have counter setups at the moment…check 12:00pm Oct 6 on your AUD/USD setup. Favoring the first of each setup though and being cautious at the counter levels.
Good Morning Everyone,
Counter setups on the pairs triggered nicely and are still running. Not sure how sustained this buying will be. Watching H4 EUR/JPY 104.33 resistance for short and GBP/USD 1.5641 PVSH for short as well. Other setups I’m looking to possibly take are the EUR/USD PVSH short at 1.3604 and GBP/JPY PVSH short at 120.21.
Trades Closed
EUR/JPY +130
AUD/JPY +100
[B]
Current Trades[/B]
[B]Short[/B]:
EUR/USD - TP 1.3100
GBP/USD - TP 1.5150
AUD/JPY - TP 71.50
GBP/JPY - TP 116.20
EUR/JPY - TP 100.50
Hi Bank, I’m a bit unsure of how to mark TP levels in the case of swing reversals and old PVSLs/Hs. Are the rules the same? (ie, fib recent high to low for buys and vice versa for sells)?
Hey Bank – Still trying to get a hang of this so please bear with me.
I’m not certain how any of these entries above were setup per your guidelines. I saw the setup on the EUR/JPY at the 104.30 but there was no fractal high on the H4 chart or an immediate bearish candle. Actually the next two candles are bullish and then we slip into bear category. Did I analyze this incorrectly? I FIB’d as if it were the fractal high and got the same TP levels you’re talking about, but I’m uncertain at what was used to arrive here.
Same story with EUR/USD and the GPB/USD on the H4 charts
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
Hi swallowtail, yes the rules are the same.
Hi amb,
I realize that our charts look a tad bit different…please see setups below:
[B]GBP/USD[/B]
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/9175/gu1p.jpg
[B]EUR/JPY[/B]
http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/4550/ej1a.jpg
You will find the same principle for the others, in that the PVSH does not have to be in the immediate move for it to be respected. Could have been formed days or weeks before. I also have found that charts vary a little between brokers.
I see. Essentially a PVSH forms with a series of lower PVSH’s. We sell the low of the higher PVSH as resistance. This happens until an uptrend forms where another PVSH occurs below the first PVSH and that’s also signaling a selling trend.
Having said that, if the last PVSH candle closed above the first PVSH, then of course this setup is negated correct? We’re looking for lower closes?
Sorry for the 100 questions bank, but I’m really into your system. I think it suits me quite well.
Good morning amb,
No problem with the questions at all. You dont necessarily have to have a series of lower PVSHs. One strong PVSH does the trick many times. Check out 12:00pm on 15 September EUR/USD H4 for example. Once we are climbing up into any PVSH resistance I pay attention. Yes, you are right, the setup would be negated if we fail to close below the PVSH, but remember that these levels are resistance and support levels, so we may close above, try to stay above, fail and close back below, which suggests that the level is holding. Look at the EUR/JPY setup I posted yesterday for example. We are back below 104.33, now with two additional PVSHs to confirm the trade. Giving a very high probability trade. While in the case of PVSHs we are looking for lower closes, sometimes it takes awhile, few hours, for the setups to mature. Again this is the case with the EUR/JPY, 20 hours above 12:00pm 29 Sept PVSH support, then finally at 8:00am this morning a strong close below. Where do we go from here. Most likely downwards. Hope I’ve answered your questions.
PVSH Short on this pair at 0.9949. Will wait for the current H4 candle to close below this level before pulling the trigger.
Hi Bank, a counter BUY trade setup just emerged on this AUDUSD chart, seems like it could go either way…
Hey swallowtail, I agree with you. Still sitting put on this one. Will see how the 8:00pm close looks below the 11% fib level at 0.9988. This could present a bet entry for shorts. Alternatively a close below 0.9949 will confirm short entries.
Why did not you sell the AUDUSD pair at 11% resistance rather than selling beneath the low of the pivot swing high?
Hi Dehyah, I missed that entry to be honest. So just grabbed the next best ticket.