GBP/USD breakeven hit. Watching out for shorts. Pairs are trading below some PVSHs.
Took PVSH shorts on the following pairs and just closed out profits.
GBP/USD +46
EUR/USD +30
NZD/USD +77
AUD/USD +81
NZD/JPY +104
+1438pips this week. Will not push for anymore. Happy Trading to Everyone.
Hmm if only I could get the gist of the setups… 
Hi Squidge, its been a little rough working and posting charts. I will however post two detailed charts of the setups today in about 10 mins. Feel free to ask.
Thank you Bank I will re-read the first posta few times to apply to what’s happening now… will let you know how I get on!
No prob Squidge.
Didn’t see anything I wanted to risk on the shortened trading day, so I am out until Sunday/Monday!
Bank I’m rusty on my entries, do you wait for the bar to close above the S/R line your looking at? Or do you enter as soon as price touches the level your watching?
I’ve found a couple time that setups I’m watching price will retrace back and pass right through the level I was watching…how do you approach this?
Have a great weekend!
Hi Bank:
I have a few questions.
- On identifying PVSL and PVSH, are you predominantly looking at the H4 charts+? I ask because looking for these swings on the H1 chart and trying to buy on the previous candle’s low/high on the 30 minute chart I think is too narrow a window.
For example on 09/29 of this week the cable had a SL of 1.5541 @ 00:00 GMT on the 4 hour chart and then a bullish candle at 4:00 GMT. The entry would have been around 1.5620 for a long anytime after 4:00 GMT which would have been taken at 6:00 GMT and resulted in a 1.5700 exit 2 hours later (80 pips).
- Do you find that stop-losses more often than not hurt rather than help in these swing scenarios? I only risk about 1% of my position per trade and willing to face a drawdown of 5-6%. But I’m finding that if I trade without a stop loss and trade to a profit of previous S/R levels (where I close 100% of the order when it reaches a certain level) results in large drawdowns but rarely a losing trade.
My criteria for entry on such “no stop loss trades” is that in the previous 12 months, the market has to be ranging between the high and the low. These require some patience and a gut check when the trades aren’t going in the direction I wish but in Swing trading, I’m finding it to be a strategy worth exploring. Since you have more experience, I’d like your insight.
Thanks!
Hi PipDoctor, hope you had a great weekend. Just returning from a very productive “net-less” weekend. Just to answer your question, for the most part l watch the reaction of the first two candles to the level and really prefer to enter after much testing has been done and the level proves to be holding. If I cant watch the price reaction, I leave an entry order in place in anticipation that the level will hold. Remember that some will fail, but the majority will hold. The more you trade them, the more you will trust them.
Hi ambtn723,
In response to your first question, you are correct on the entries and the exits. In this particular scenario that you have cited, you would realize that you would have been buying after much buying had already taken place and at a time when retracement would have been due, hence an earlier exit with smaller profit. The ideal is to enter as close to the beginning of the swing as possible and exit as close to the ending as possible.
Where stop losses are concerned, personally I believe they help far more than they hurt. I enter trades knowing exactly what I am risking. When there is no stop it means that I am risking my entire account on a trade. In essence, I could wake up in the morning and see Balance :$0, end of trading.
I just could not sleep at all without a stop loss, my eyes would be eternally glued to the charts. A very good friend of mine and trader once told me “Trading is the ability to assume risks”. We must first acknowledge that there will be losses in trading before engaging.
It sounds however that you trade larger time frames. If that is the case the PVSHs and PVSLs can help you identify stronger S&R levels and improve entries.
I am typically a 4hour chart trader. Its easier for me to make decisions on this timeframe and it works well with time and patience level. I think however that these principles can be bent to adjust each trader’s scenario.
Thanks much for sharing!
Bank
Thanks Bank.
Scanning the currency pairs last night and this am and have found a very small scalp on .76046 on the 1H chart going long. It’s setup nicely but I doubt it’ll yield more than 30 pips net. Will try this out this week and post where I entered.
I didn’t see anything exciting this morning. Will check again this evening and tomorrow morning.
Have a great day all!
No prob amb.
Following an interesting level on the GBP/USD. Its a PVSH reverse trade on the Weekly chart. A PVSH from 4/10/2010 has held as support three times and we are coming close to that level again. Looking to buy @1.5336
@ PIP: Isn’t the rule to do a retrace at the 89% level from the previous low to current high? I saw the same trade on the D1 level but my entry is a few pips higher.
@ Bank: Also, I tried trading on the H1 Chart. I took 4 trades last night in demo mode and all but one of them went my way. The PVSHs/SLs lined up pretty well or so I thought. Here they are. Please let me know if I got this right (all times are GMT).
CAD/JPY at 72.844 at 6:04 on 10/4. Saw it as a higher swing low on H1 candle after a downtrend. Took the higher high. Trade stopped out. -52 pips.
GBP/JPY at 118.517 at 6:56 on 10/4. Same scenario. -80 pips.
NZD/USD at .75447 at 7:20 on 10/4. Same scenario. -57 pips.
EUR/JPG at 101.300 at 5:58 on 10/4. Same scnario. Took my first breakeven at 102.05. +50 pips and still heading north.
So far I’m -137 pips for the day but expecting to breakeven with the EUR/JPY trade.
IS the H1 too narrow of a window? None of these trades would have held up on the H4 level.
Hi amb,
Ive been so busy this week I have hardly had time to scratch my head.
CAD/JPY - There was no long setup on the H4 chart. Short was triggered on 72.98 PVSH and is still in motion. H1 6:00pm PVSL triggered for +24 pips, however two PVSHs triggered right after hinting continued selling. Same for GBP/JPY and there was no long setup on the H4 chart.
NZD/USD - H4 chart showed PVSH short setup. H1 9:00pm PVSL triggered for +55pips.
EUR/JPY - No setup on H4 chart. H1 6:00pm PVSL triggered and is still in motion for +129pips.
Please remember that the PVSL is only valid when there is a CLOSE above the high and vice versa for the PVSH.
Finally read through the thread and caught up, whew! I’m looking forward to trying this method and contributing to this thread, thank you Bankdapips for sharing this. I have two charts where I identified possible entries (I took these trades), but i’m not sure if they are correct?
- SHORT USDCAD H4 @ 1.0545, Currently +143 pips
- LONG NZDJPY H4 @ 57.97, Currently +92 pips
What do you guys think? Also, I’ll be looking at the charts later and will post any possible setups emerging for discussion.
Hi swallowtail,
Great and simply elegant setups you caught there. You’ve got it right there. Keep it simple.
I have been out all week and am looking forward to the next week of trading when I’m on vacation.
Have a great rest of week and see you all next week.
Hi Everyone,
Hope you had a great week of trading. A lot of setups triggered and traded well this week. Looking forward to a good week next week. Have a great weekend!