HO HO HO piping style

[NewbTrader]

Having posted several times on readers’ choice of weeks for trades
I’ve realized I should rather post in my own journal/blog kind of thing, and can post as many trades as I’d like to
My system is simple, I search for key support/resistance, I also try to identify trend & trend lines,
Then finally identify the turning points and trade those key turning points…
Sometimes I even counter-trade a trend just because many indicators indicate a reversal (divergences) - very short term (couple days-a week)

A bit more detailed
I usually use the daily charts to confirm the trend or turning points of a trade, but will actually trade at a smaller timeframe
For example, I will use the so called triple timeframe system, I confirm a trend is up on the daily, then take a look at the 4h chart to see if the trend is down, then will pinpoint my trade on the hourly chart for the entry, i usually look at the daily for the stoploss + profit targets

Usually I trade the breakouts on the hourly, or turning points,
Breakouts are more costly since it’s a bit more expensive but they give more solid signals
As for the turning points, they give the most value but might give false signals

let’s first take a look at a possible pair for trading the USD/CHF

this is the daily chart of usd/chf
as you can see the chart is in a clear downtrend since july 24th 2012

LONG or SHORT: Short

ENTRY: possibly at .92 breakout of recent low but before jumping in the trade wait for rsi ticks down then go short the next day

STOP: .932 for 120 pips right above our resistance

TP: TP at .896 for 240pips

R:R - 2:1

Trade rationale: We have just hit the upper part of our range, stoch indicator just crossed even though neither the rsi nor the stoch is overbought, this is still a clear sell if we believe in this trendline. As for how you draw the trendline is up to you…and most often people are bad at drawing/trading trendlines(i myself included). With all said, i’d still short
Also this pair moves very slow for the most part. So might have to wait a day or two for the trade to set up.

[NewbTrader]

i closed the usd/chf trades from suffering massive heart failure when the news came and bought this pair down
also i realized the usd/jpy is nearly unharmed by the news, let’s take a look at the 4h chart of usd/jpy

the usd/jpy seems to be slowing down, showing bearish divergences on all three indicators on the 4h chart
macd seems to be ticking down, the stoch seems to have crossed but can’t really tell, rsi nearly touched the 70 but didn’t
with all said, im a bit biased towards the bearish side of this pair in the short term
but, im very reluctant to short this pair since usd/jpy remained unaffected by the news atm, it seems the jpy is surprisingly weak
will remain a bearish bias but will not short this pair until a strong signal to do so

[NewbTrader]

gbp weekly chart
gbp current trend is down, ema and macd ticking down
it seems consolidating what looks like a bearish pennant formation
also there seems to be a what looks like a double top forming

[NewbTrader]

this is daily chart of gbp/usd
ok, i got it wrong, it was a triple top

SHORT or LONG: SHORT
Entry Price - 1.58, this is the breakout point
SL - 1.606 for 260 pips, half way point in the double top formation
Target - 1.536 - 440 pips, this is the size of the double/triple top formation
R:R - almost 2:1

Trade rationale:

perfect opportunity to short the breakout
it’s currently closing in at the 1.58 bottom
so our entry will below this bottom
we also seem to see a break in the falling wedge and the uptrend line at the same time
which both indicates strong bearish sentiment
what most like to happen is going to be a bit of consolidation at this bottom before moving up or down

we want to catch the breakout, but also not miss the move going up, we’ll be looking for an opportunity to go long and short

we’ll see what kind of moves gbp/usd will show, if we see a long tail of some kind on the 4h chart, we’ll also ride the way up