How do I avoid useless/conflicting information?

Beginner Questions
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I’ve noticed a few things on various forums and websites like BP, which I’d like to discuss. Honestly I’ve reconsidered my position on Forex, and I’m remaining very sceptical on pursing a career in it. The only way I see in succeeding is learning from books myself, and creating my own strategy. Or just trying to find a verifiable “successful trader” to mentor/guide me.

1. Price action or indicators?
2. Minority of traders are successful

1. The reason I ask this is because many people argue that one or the other is “better.” The main argument for price action is that indicators are lagging messes. However an indicator takes past price action and then visualises the result after applying a formula to it; but analysing purely price patterns, you’re still using past price action when looking at patterns. So what’s the difference, aren’t they both “lagging?” Am I just misinformed? What’s the real advantage of naked charts/price action vs indicators?

2. I’m only 1-2 weeks into learning FX, however I’d like to avoid pitfalls that beginners experience. I don’t buy into the saying that repeated failure will eventually lead you into success, at least in FX. How many years will I waste just trying everything considering the amount of strategies, and the abundance of conflicting information? I think the only way to become successful is learning from successful traders, instead of trying re-invent the wheel by creating my “own” strategies; most likely based on information that doesn’t even work. Would people really pass on useful knowledge/strategies in these forums or websites, without wanting anything in return; especially considering FX is a zero-sum game?

I’ve observed the same thing in bodybuilding, where there are many similarities to trading. This seems weird at first, but just like in trading there are empty promises of quick and easy returns everywhere in bodybuilding. Once I delved deeper into it, I found legit sources fairly quickly and I’ve made progress where many have failed; and much quicker than those who try bad bodybuilding programs for years before giving up. (Of course it still took years of dedication.) It just seems like the blind lead the blind here, and supposedly successful traders can’t verify their claims.

Just my two cents from a newbie’s perspective. Thanks for reading.

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T, all trading is a negative sum game, you always have to pay the broker, so if you have a losing trade, you also lose the fees.

The Ever Negative VIPER

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Hi Turtle. Well done for getting into trading, most people don’t ever realise they can attempt to take control of their own destiny, or don’t dare to try.

There’s ample free and reliable information available on this and other websites, but as with everything you need to check its is reliable. So verify if what;'s said is repeated from books and other posts or is it from personal experience. Is it a first impression from a 3 month trader or hard-earned experience form years in the trenches? Does it make rational sense anyway?

People do pass on reliable trading techniques, tactics and even whole strategies. You can read what I do - there’s no cost or risk to me in sharing this with you or 10 or 1000 other traders; even combined, we will not change the direction of travel of the EUR/USD one cent.

But before you go looking for information, decide what questions you need answers to in order to start a simple strategy. Then just get answers for them, and them alone. Successful traders know their strategy inside out; though they might struggle when it comes to the intricacies of fiscal policy, that doesn’t stop them making money.

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The conclusion I have come to after following BP for a few years is that one of the main problems that defeat newcomers is that they are approaching trading from the wrong end.

The first questions that are usually raised are exactly the same type as those that you point out yourself: e.g. are indicators better or worse than PA? Where to find a strategy that “works”? How much can I expect to make in a year? Which timeframe works “best”? etc.

But this is like going shopping for a collection of various machines based on which performs best, which is biggest, which is slickest, etc…and only then deciding what you could make with them.

As any businessman or industrialist will confirm, you first have your business idea, then you analyse its potential, then you decide how to develop it and commercialise it - and then you select the methods how you are going to achieve its potential… and then select the necessary tools that you need for it.

With many newcomers, the only pre-analysis I see is -" I want to make a lot of money".

This pre-analysis also requires consideration of you as the trader. how much time and resources you have for this venture. what are your overall financial objectives both near term and long term, are you looking for a regular steady income or capital building, how often can you monitor positions, how you react to emotional stress, etc.

Then you need to select what type and quantity of markets interest you, are you a specialist in one field with a fundamental analyical bias or a technical trader across 20-30 different securities, etc. Do you wish to preferably hold positions for the big moves or trade in and out for small gains ( i.e. are you more comfortable looking for 100 pips with 1 lot or 10 pips with 10 lots), and so on.

Once you have built a profile of what kind of trader you are and what kind of trading you want to do - then you can start to investigate what tools you will need to achieve this - knowing already what criteria these tools will have to meet. (simple basic example: I need to identify an underlying trend - check out various MA’s).

And then, whatever your choice of business product and model and range of working tools, you still have to design your personalised management systems for controlling risk exposure and managing your cash flow.

One of the best examples on this site of an experienced trader who has gone through precisely this process in the above order is @_Bob and his boxes. it would be worth reading through his thread.

You ask is it likely that experienced traders would offer something for nothing - well that depends what you are looking for. I am sure most consistent traders will agree that the approach that works for them will not necessarily workfor someone else and would not even want to try to offer it for general usage. On the other hand, there are many examples of threads dedicated simply to one particular trading strategy, but I have never come across even one of these that produces consistent, long-term results amongst its followers.

Maybe I am just an old-fashioned, obsolete brand of trader since most Newbies seem to only want a downloadable, fully-automated program that they just plug in, switch on and watch the money roll in without having to understand or study anything much at all. it is hardly surprising that experienced traders are not very inspired to talk with total novices who just want to get in and race without even learning how to drive…

…but I think there are certainly traders willing to give advice and suggestions based on their own experiences that can be of substantial help to Newbies as they tread their own path…

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You are too kind my friend.

To the OP. Also check @Simple_Simon thread on oil. Its amazing to read the thought processes he skillfully articulates for us.

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Ha, very true. I guess retail traders are already at a disadvantage as soon as they enter a trade.

I see, so retail traders sharing their strategies wouldn’t really affect the FX market; considering the volume of trades. [quote=“tommor, post:3, topic:120046”]
But before you go looking for information, decide what questions you need answers to in order to start a simple strategy. Then just get answers for them, and them alone. Successful traders know their strategy inside out; though they might struggle when it comes to the intricacies of fiscal policy, that doesn’t stop them making money.
[/quote]
Alright, so it isn’t so much about having a “deep” understanding of economics, but rather following a strategy that has a verifiable edge with discipline.

This is very insightful, and exactly what I needed to understand how I should move forward. Thanks for taking the time to write your post. I’m not really concerned with how much money I make, I’m just a methodical kind of person who likes to have a clear path to an end goal. My real end goal is just to have a steady income, and to compound my investment overtime. I’d be extremely happy to make 5-6% profit every month. I guess to become successful with FX I’ll have to deal with becoming more experimental, and being more creative.

I have a drive to learn how to trade, not just for the money (although a big part, let’s not lie here); but also for the challenge that becoming successful in FX presents, considering how many fail. I’m generally very sceptical of everything, and I know that “get rich quick” schemes are B + S. Thanks again, I have a much better understanding of where I was going wrong now.

Sure thing, I’ll check out both yours and @Simple_Simon threads.

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According to me, to read offer flow of market Price Action trading is the best! But, that doesn’t mean, indicators are valueless! You can use trading indicators to filter your entry and exit points! Depending on only trading indicator is bad!

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From my personal view, using indicator is good, but you can trade using naked chart , i would be better. It varies from traders to trader. I apreciate your view that we need successful forex trader as mentor. But it is very difficult to find them. And I am not sure when a successful trader share their trading psychology exactly and properly

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The old adage “Those who can - DO - Those who can’t Do - Teach !” is apparent from all the books which are written and the “Courses” which you can pay real money for - all over the place.

If you have a method which really works, why would you let it out ? Surely you’d guard it with your life, not pass it on to a load of competitors ! Especially not pass it on for free !

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Some off us do bro. But people are lazy. Which is why I’m happy to share for free. No-one is prepared to put the effort into implementing a successful strategy.

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Fair comment @_bob
It’s a multi legged stool tho’ isn’t it ?
One person can be very successful using a methodology another will never be able to master - due to a huge range of factors mostly related to personality.
Short attention span and demands for instant gratification do not bode well for aspiring traders.

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But thats exactly what I suffer from bro.

What people can’t teach is descretion.

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@_bob You’ve been hammering at that door hour after hour day after day for three years mate ! I know you hammereed on other doors trying to get in for a long time before that ! “Short attention span” means a different thing to each of us I reckon ! :sunglasses:

However, to OP - Bob does indeed post his journey to a succcessful system on the threads here - read that and learn if you want to make money, but as he says “you can’t teach Discretion” which I think means something similar to ;

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My two cents. YouTube Stephen W Bigalow, pfd 12 candlesticks, nadex education. Looks like three cents worth. Should point you on a new path.

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I can endorse the Bigalow recommendation. Very solid stuff, even if I did end up going in a different direction. I ended up buying his (first) book, and feel that it offered some very real insight into market psychology and how to read candlestick charts.

A word of caution, however. He, like a lot of the ‘greats’, is from a time before forex. This means his strategies, examples, and experience all revolve around the stock market, which is a very different animal from the forex. You cannot simply lift their strategies from their books and apply them to the money markets, and they would be the first to tell you that.

Bigalow, for example, pays a great deal of attention to ‘gapping’ between candlesticks, and market open/close. Neither really apply to forex trading.

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And yet forex does gap - all the time. It’s just that the computer charting software does not show it.

WE had a recent discussion on “Trading news”, where I challenged the statement that on “News”, the price can shoot up or down “without triggerring your stop” and was informed that it DOES happen. Similarly, Tom Hougaard’s You tube video on trading news refers to “the price moving and you think you are the only person iin the world who didn’t get filled” - he then goes on to say that someone had researched the “Spikes” and found that only 3 trades drove the jump !

I don’t really know how much use that knowledge is, but gaps Do happen n forex - you see them at weekends too.

I too found Bigalow’s 12 setups quite informative.

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What you say is true, but that’s not actually what I was referring to.

Bigalow is specifically looking at the large gaps that can occur between the close of one candle and the open of another. This is relevant in stocks where there is an 8 hour trading day, and a gap the following morning says something about how sentiment may have developed while the market was closed.

In 24 hour forex, however, we only have those kinds of gapping opportunities over the weekend, rather than on a daily basis.

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And by the same token, I was “expanding” your statement rather than contradicting it.

Your “word of caution” is valid, and so is the overall style Bigalow puts forward as a basic way of looking at the price action.

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Very true, A candlestick chart tells you what is happening right now what the buyers and sellers are doing at the moment. Gaps don’t happen that much in fx. but the other signals do, in one minet, five minet, or any other time frame. Try this one a one minet chart, look for the one, two or three candlestick patterns. It takes time, but they do work.
Best JohnTO35

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Hope this helps, FX is not a quick get rich skem, it takes time & learning. Similar to college.
Check out “Forex4 noobs” on you tube, it’s free & once learned may be able to join forum, 1 on 1 mentoring. Best to you.
PS. Dec is a slow month for trading.