How Do I Predict/Expect the Pip Change for News? < Masters Help Me Please :)

Hello babypips,

I joined this amazing community in the January and I have been reading ever since. I have not asked much questions in here because it was easier to just search the forum and find a good answer.

Today I have a question though.

How do I predict how many pips will change for a currency pair after a news release? How do I get forecasts? I read the Forex Calendar and I see there are important news and less so important news. There is the previous value and the forecast. But what I am really interested in is knowing how many pips it will change in my chart(volatility). eg. for NFP report it is about 100+. but what about the less important releases that change 20-40 pips? Are there any free resources I can use to see historic values etc.?

And then there is this other question,

There are new news coming every day, and news is moving the price up or down. When there is no news the market is quiet. and you cannot make profit.
And people advise not to trade when the news is coming or right after a news release. So my dilemma is that when there is no news I can’t trade; and when there is news I shouldn’t trade?

Guys I am really counting on your help here.

Thanks in advance,

no one want’s to help me?

First off this is a complex question which starts debate & argument in all quarters.
I have sourced the website below to help clarify a few things. Read the whole page &
read more from Kathy Lien & others.

How To Trade Forex On News Releases

There is no definitive answer why certain news will move the market more than
other, why sometimes the moves are priced in before hand etc.

As Forex traders all we can do is attempt to be on the right side of most
of these moves (if not get out relatively unscathed) & make a profit.

Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory
Forex Factory
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Forex Market News, Breaking Foreign Exchange, FX Headlines ForexLive
These are the ones I use hope this helps
I forgot to add, I agree with the above. Until you can understand if and/or how those news announcements could affect your trade, if it were me I wouldn’t trade around the news. Even now if I’m not sure I don’t trade.

[B]On # of pips:[/B]
I haven’t heard of any free historic record of pip movement, but I gotta tell you that it’s still a hit or miss each time. For example, one time China’s manufacturing PMI data barely made a dent on AUD/USD because no one believed the printed numbers. The ECB’s decision was also mostly a non-mover last month (unlike today) because Draghi just repeated their forward guidance speech.

[B]On trading the news:[/B]
I know of a lot of traders who stay away from trading the actual report, but use the reaction momentum as confirmation for chart patterns and biases that they have on the higher time frames.